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DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA
CENTRAL OREGON LARGE LOT INDUSTRIAL
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS
MAY 31, 2011
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This project was funded by a Department of Land Conservation and Development Technical Assistance Grant
and in-kind contributions of participating jurisdictions.
REGIONAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE (RAC)
RAC Members included:
Nick Lelack, Project Manager, Deschutes County
Peter Gutowsky, Deschutes County
Pam Hardy, 1000 Friends of Oregon
Tom Hogue, Department of Land Conservation and Development
Karen Swirsky, Department of Land Conservation and Development
Clark Jackson, Oregon Business Development Department
Roger Lee, Economic Development for Central Oregon (EDCO)
Brian Meece, Central Oregon Association of Realtors
Doug Parker, Department of State Lands
Wayne Pearson, Economic Development for Central Oregon (EDCO)/Jefferson County
Eric Porter, City of Sisters
Brian Rankin, City of Bend
Heather Richards, City of Redmond
John Russell, Department of State Lands
Jon Skidmore, Jefferson County
Lee Smith, La Pine Industrial Group
Nick Snead, City of Madras
Bill Zelenka, Crook County
Scott Edelman, City of Prineville
David Ditz, Project Executive – Juniper Ridge (DMA, Inc.)
CONSULTING STAFF
Johnson Reid LLC
Jerry Johnson, Principal
Chris Blakney, Project Manager
Angelo Planning Group
D.J. Heffernan, Senior Planner
Rebecca Dann, Planner
IronWolf Community Resources
Larry Pederson, Principal
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. PROJECT INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1
Problem Statement ...................................................................................................................................... 1
Framework for Regional Economic Opportunities Analysis ......................................................................... 5
II. COMMUNITY VISION ............................................................................................................................ 5
A. REGIONAL GOAL AND INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................... 5
Regional Approach ....................................................................................................................................... 5
B. COMMUNITY VISION STATEMENT .................................................................................................................... 6
III. TREND ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................. 7
A. NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS ....................................................................................................................... 7
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 7
Short-Term Outlook ..................................................................................................................................... 7
Long-Term Outlook .................................................................................................................................... 11
B. STATE ECONOMIC TRENDS ..................................................................................................................... 13
General Industry Trends ............................................................................................................................. 13
Risk Factors ................................................................................................................................................ 17
C. LOCAL TRENDS & CONDITIONS ......................................................................................................................... 18
Economic Factors ....................................................................................................................................... 18
IV. TARGET INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... 21
A. LARGE-LOT TRENDS AND DYNAMICS .............................................................................................................. 21
Large Lot Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 21
Importance of Large-lot Supply and Market Choice .................................................................................. 22
Competitive Inventories ............................................................................................................................. 24
B. STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES IN THE CENTRAL OREGON ECONOMY ..................................................................... 25
Madras (Jefferson County) ......................................................................................................................... 26
La Pine (Deschutes County) ........................................................................................................................ 26
Prineville (Crook County) ............................................................................................................................ 26
Bend (Deschutes County) ........................................................................................................................... 27
Redmond (Deschutes County) .................................................................................................................... 28
Sisters (Deschutes County) ......................................................................................................................... 28
C. TARGET INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES IN CENTRAL OREGON ................................................................................... 28
D. SITE/RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS OF KEY DEVELOPMENT CLASSES .................................................... 30
Targeted Industries with Large Lot Needs ................................................................................................. 31
Central Oregon Viability for the Data Center Industry ............................................................................... 31
Central Oregon Viability for the High Technology Industry ....................................................................... 33
Central Oregon Viability for the Warehouse & Distribution Industry ........................................................ 33
E. REGIONAL LARGE-LOT DEMAND............................................................................................................ 35
Long Range Employment Forecast............................................................................................................. 35
Industry Placement Velocity ...................................................................................................................... 36
V. ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL............................................................................................................... 39
A. SITE NEED CHARACTERISTICS ........................................................................................................................ 39
B. GROSS LAND DEMAND ................................................................................................................................ 43
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA
APPENDIX A: LETTERS FROM ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROFESSIONALS ................................................ 49
APPENDIX B: EXAMPLES OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS PROACTIVELY PLANNING FOR INDUSTRIAL
DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................................................... 59
APPENDIX C: CORRESPONDENCES RESPONDING TO REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS ...... 70
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 1
I. PROJECT INTRODUCTION
Deschutes County, in coordination with its regional partners, has prepared this regional evaluation of the
economic opportunities and constraints associated with users of large industrial parcels in the Central Oregon
region. This approach recognizes the market reality that Central Oregon currently serves as an integrated
economic unit.
A regional consensus has been agreed upon to establish and pro -actively manage a regional land supply of large-lot
industrial sites to enable the region to become competitive in industrial recruitment. This regional strategy will
include individual site infrastructure improvement assessment and implementation programs/requirements.
Regional planning, management, and governance of a perpetual large-lot industrial vacant land supply will involve
Central Oregon city and county governments (and staff) including advice and guidance from Central Oregon Cities
Organization (COCO, Economic Development in Central Oregon (EDCO) and Oregon Business Development
Department (OBDD) to assure an adequate, self-renewing regional supply of developable and competitive vacant
industrial sites.
An outcome of regional significance requires a collective regional effort. This project proposes to create and
manage a regional supply of vacant, developable large-lot industrial sites to accommodate stable, family-wage
employment opportunities of local and regional significance. Although site development will be fundamentally
implemented at the local jurisdictional level, the organization, coordination, promotion and governance of this
regional industrial lands strategy and inventory is proposed to be implemented at a coordinated, collaborative
regional level. The ultimate outcome of diversified and stable family-wage job creation will be advanced through
provision of an adequate and competitive industrial site land supply to engage the g lobal, national and regional
industrial recruitment marketplace and successfully recruit major employers to the region.
The Central Oregon region needs a critical mass of competitive and diverse vacant, developable industrial sites in
order for site selectors representing potential industrial recruitment to consider the region. One or two sites in one
or two jurisdictions will not be adequate to generate regional interest or a visit according to industrial recruitment
specialists from OBDD. Consequently, a multi-jurisdictional cooperative effort has been initiated to pursue a
regional approach to establish a competitive supply of sites particularly designed to address those (unaccounted
for) out-of-region (and state) industries that can locate in Central Or egon after shopping the globe for the best
large-lot industrial development site they can find. This type of land need (or demand) is systematically missed and
unaccounted for in local, conventional industrial land needs assessments in Oregon communities.
PROBLEM STATEMENT
During the 1990s the Central Oregon region undertook a dramatic transformation from a goods producing
economy concentrated largely in wood products into a service based economy serving a growing and diverse
tourism and household base. Accelerated in-migration and tourism growth gave way to rapid economic expansion,
escalation in home prices, and a systematic shift in the local economy from goods producing activities to service
oriented industries. While initially representing a diversification of the local economy, this shift has led to an over -
reliance upon these types of industries. During the recent recession, the regional economy’s vulnerabilities
became apparent.
Central Oregon's traditional industrial base remains active in the local economy, and the region would like to
increase its emphasis on industrial employment to strengthen that base . The region's supply of affordable land,
low cost utilities, quality of life, and organized economic development landscape makes it an attrac tive option for
growth in many traded sector industries. Central Oregon economic development efforts have been negatively
impacted by a lack of readily available large-lot industrial sites. Manufacturing employment opportunities in
particular are needed to establish a diversified and thereby more stable and balanced regional employment
outlook. New manufacturing and other high value employment opportunities require an attractive supply of
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 2
vacant industrial sites to be competitive in global industrial recru itment pursuits. New land supply methods are
needed, too.
In a structural sense, globalization has changed the way manufacturers conduct business. Cost and efficiency are
the central tenets of an increasingly competitive market. Firms are increasingly pressured to develop more capital
intense production models, place a greater emphasis on economies of scale, as well as production efficiency and
flexibility. Time-to-market for firms has become an even more crucial factor as they make decisions to locate new
plants and facilities. The result has been the emergence of a clear real estate trend, creating a global demand for
large development ready industrial sites, with the immediacy of utility services (both public and private sector) of
critical importance. Through Oregon's statewide planning framework, this analysis is intended to evaluate Central
Oregon's opportunities, competitiveness, ability, and willingness to accommodate recruited and existing firms
requiring new large scale development models.
Successful local and regional industrial recruitment in the 21st Century must consider global competition factors.
Communities, regions and states that focus primarily or exclusively on outdated governance paradigms are ill
suited for keeping up with fast paced global economic and industrial marketplace changes. Industries must be
nimble to be successful in the competitive global marketplace. Manufacturers must be able to quickly produce
new products at expanded, renovated or new production facilities in “just -in-time” fashion. Often accomplished
through on-site expansion on areas reserved for that purpose, industrial site selectors must choose sites large
enough to build-in future expansion capacity. Government must be responsive to align its regulatory and process
requirements to meet market demands if it wishes to capture the considerable benefits of high value industrial
development.
Site selectors shopping the international marketplace of large-lot industrial sites determine the type of land supply
product they will consider. For an individual vacant industrial site to be competitive, it must be large enough to
offer future expansion on-site. It must be proximate to other competitive sites and governed by a regulatory
structure that is responsive to the needs of industry.
Within this analysis a large lot industrial site is defined to be 50 acres or larger with specific site attributes and
amenities that appeal to that industry and support its activities. This delineation is consistent with the State of
Oregon’s Certified Industrial Site program, which is Business Oregon’s primary tool to certify and market industrial
sites as ‘project ready’ within 180 days or less. The certified sites programs has had a distinct emphasis on large
lots with an average size of 64 acres and more than ha lf of the lots being in assemblages of over 50 acres. There
have been 65 sites certified in Oregon since 2004 and there has been development on more than 50% of those
properties. The importance of this inventory is attested by the number of employers that have located on certified
sites, several of which are summarized in Figure 1. This activity took place despite the fact that the economy was
experiencing one of the most severe recessions in history.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 3
FIGURE 1: EMPLOYMENT ACTIVITY ON CERTIFIED SITES (2009-2010)
Source: Oregon Business Development
So why is lot size often a critical component of a company’s site selection decision ? Below are some technical and
market requirements provided by Oregon Business Development that contribute to lot-size demanded by
industrial users:
1) On average, industrial sites are only 40% to 60% developable. While the footprint for a large facility
might only be five or ten acres, requirements for setbacks, access, parking, and environmental mitigation
and avoidance (i.e. wetlands) usually require more room than the facility itself.
2) Industries want buffering around their site for a number of very go od reasons (security, storage, and
noise). This has been the case for a number of the largest technology and green-industry related
recruitments.
3) Many industries, particularly true in the fast growing clean -energy arena, require land for expansion for
their long-term business plan. While expansion space is not always taken advantage of, it is an essential
part of the site selection strategy due to the cost of future expansion and the flexibility offered.
4) Large parcels are also a good way to build a cluster of industries around a high profile anchor business,
which proves the value of the location to other businesses that are less willing to trail -blaze or be first into
a region. The anchor businesses often pull suppliers to the region, further enhancing their economic
benefit.
5) Efficiencies can be obtained by clustering industrial users into large master -planned business parks.
Land use efficiencies can be achieved when businesses are allowed to devel op their facilities as needed,
while also having the assurance that there will be nearby parcels available for future expansion. Energy,
water, waste, and material flows can be streamlined in a park setting where multiple businesses can take
advantage of common infrastructure investments and, in some cases, take advantage of each other’s
energy and waste streams.
The emphasis of this analysis is on “sites” as opposed to land. Firms require sites that can accommodate their
current and anticipated future needs. The traditional formula approach to industrial land needs determination is
based upon population and employment projections applied to a square footage per employee ratio to arrive at a
total acreage number. The necessary range of parcel sizes, lot configuration, required site attributes, land
banking/growth options, and critical infrastructure factors are essentially de -prioritized, subordinated or ignored in
this traditional static acreage calculation approach. This approach can work for residential and commercial
projections, but is poorly suited to the calculation of industrial site needs.1
1 Unlike office demand, the need for most types of industrial space is difficult to determine using employment projections. Mos t industrial
uses generate comparatively few jobs per square foot of leasable area, and space needs have little to do with changes in the number of
jobs in production or distribution business…Warehouse and distribution demand (for example) is usually generated by changes in
Table 1: Employment Activity on Certified Sites (2009-2010)
Company (Community)Activity on Certified Site Job Impact
Facebook (Prineville)2010 New Facility Announcement 200 Construction/35
Permanent
Home Depot (Salem)2010 New Facility Announcement 175 Jobs
Sanyo (Salem)2009 Opening 200 Jobs by 2010
Solaicx (Portland)2010 Expansion 60 Jobs
Ferrotec (Fairview)2010 New Facility Announcement 30 Jobs
Genentech (Hillsboro)2010 Fully Operational 300 Jobs
Crown Works Dental (Sutherlin)2009 Facility Opens 125 Jobs
Colgate/Palmolive (Portland)2009 New Facility Announcement 20 Jobs
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 4
For a region to be attractive enough to motivate industrial site selectors to visit, investigate and recommend the
region, it must offer a diversity of large-lot industrial sites (that are either served or serviceable) along with all of
the other needed support factors including adequately skilled workforce, workforce training programs, worker
housing, supportive local government, utility services and tra nsportation, and quality of life. Facebook’s recent
move to Prineville was based upon an affordable and adequate water supply, affordable energy prices, year round
cool nights to reduce cooling costs, and various local incentives. The Facebook site offere d on-site expansion
opportunity that is already being exercised.
Much of the recent demand for large lot industrial comes from rapidly growing industries that are building
production and research capabilities to establish global scale. Additional demand comes from industry looking for
regional production or as a result of specific logistical concerns (i.e. location near markets or suppliers, access to
specific transportation modes). Warehousing and distribution is an important component of the economy that
keeps international ports expanding and strengthens Oregon’s export markets for consumer, industrial and
agricultural products.
Major employers in traded sector industries (export industries) are the primary drivers of economic growth,
providing the impetus for net growth in the regional economy and supporting a wide range of support industries.
At the state and local level, policy makers understand the importance that large -scale employers can have on the
local economy. In 2007 Central Oregon was home to three firms with 1,000 or more employees and an additional
five with at least 500. The State's Industrial Site Certification Program has been a success in coordination with
active recruitment efforts. Nevertheless, suitable land for today's industria l development forms has emerged as
one of Oregon's most severe development challenges. As a region, Central Oregon has specifically targeted basic
industries with large lot industrial needs to support the Region’s economic development objectives. While many
locally based service-sector businesses are an essential part of a region’s business mix and quality of life, they are
not as effective in creating new living wage jobs.
Figure 2 is a list of some of the annual economic impacts of industrial lands that is based on operating payrolls and
a multiplier that takes into effect spending by the company and its employees in the region. These impacts are
substantial and dwarf the job and income productivity of alternative productive land uses (i.e. agriculture,
forestry). This is particularly true in Central Oregon, which has relatively low agricultural yields per acre.
FIGURE 2: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EMPLOYMENT LAND
Source: Oregon Business Development
Central Oregon’s efforts to identify and promote a number of large lot areas for industry is, in a national context,
relatively modest and completely appropriate for its current size, level of support services, and current and
planned infrastructure. Maintaining a portfolio of competitive sites ranging from 50 to over 200 acres should
result in substantial economic benefits and land use efficiencies.
corporate logistics and freight volumes, not job growth.” Real Estate Market Analysis: Methods and Case Studies, Second Edition, ULI
Press, 2009.
Table 3: Economic Impact of Employment Land
Industry/Sector
Acres
Economic
Impact Per
Acre
Basis of
Impact
Notes on Methodology
Source
Lowe's Distribution 205 $207,500 Payroll +
Multiplier
Potential Impact of Large
distribution Center in
Lebanon
Business Oregon
Solar Cluster 179 $1,400,000 Payroll +
Multiplier
Potential impact of three
firms in Portland,
Hillsboro, and Salem
Business Oregon
Genentech 75 $400,800 Payroll +
Multiplier
Potential Impact Study
Contracted for Incentives
Business Oregon
Title 4 Lands Hillsboro 3,388 $616,000 Payroll No
Multiplier
Industrial Lands in
Hillsboro based on
Employment Data
Business Oregon
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 5
FRAMEWORK FOR REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS
This report is designed to meet the requirements of Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 9 and the administrative rule
that implements Goal 9 (OAR 660-009). This report is a Regional Economic Opportunities Analysis, and is allowed
under the provisions of OAR 660-009-0030 (multi-jurisdictional coordination). The following table describes the
requirements of OAR 660-009 and where those requirements are met within the report. As a regional EOA with a
specific focus on large lot industrial property, the report will not meet all requirements for local jurisdictions.
Requirement of OAR-009 Location Addressed in Report
660-009-0015(1) Review of national, state, regional,
county, and local trends Chapter 3
660-009-0015(2) Identify required site types Chapter 5
660-0090015(3) Inventory of industrial and other
employment lands
660-009-0015(4) Assessment of community
economic development potential Chapters 3 and 4
660-009-0020 Industrial and other employment
development policies
660-009-0025(1) Identification of needed sites Chapter 5
660-009-0025(2) Total land supply
660-009-0025(3) Short-term supply of land
II. COMMUNITY VISION
A. REGIONAL GOAL AND INTRODUCTION
REGIONAL APPROACH
The Central Oregon region [comprised of Jefferson, Crook and Deschutes counties] proposes regional coordination
and cooperation to attract new industrial employers. Economic activity in the region crosses jurisdictional
boundaries, as does the labor force. While geographically s eparate, the jurisdictions in the region function in a
manner similar to other metropolitan areas, which often share boundaries. The shared economic function within
Central Oregon supports a regional approach to economic development, particularly with res pect to large basic
industries.
Developing and maintaining a regional supply of large readily available industrial sites will allow Central Oregon
communities to compete for a broader range of economic development opportunities than they are currently
capable of. There are a substantial number of large firms regularly seeking sites that are not currently available
within the region, precluding economic development organization s such as Business Oregon and EDCO from
marketing the area to these prospects. As attracting this type of activity is not currently part of regional economic
development efforts, providing an ability to appeal to this segment is seen as additive to existing economic
development efforts. In other words, the region’s jurisdictions h ave developed Goal 9 compliance based on
projected growth reflective of traditional patterns, and the attraction of a large industrial user would be
considered an exogenous impact to these projections.
The primary economic development objective of this analysis is to ensure that the regional industrial land
inventory is adequate to support the specific needs of large lot industrial users. As a result, a substantial amount
of attention is paid to the site selection process utilized by candidate firms. Large firms go through a methodical
and deliberate site selection process for “development-ready” sites. Successful recruitment of these firms requires
a competitive selection of “development-ready” sites meeting a variety of physical and locational requirements. A
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 6
development-ready site, or a “shovel-ready” site, is defined as a property in which site improvement can begin
within 180 days of purchase and development application. Such sites are either served or readily served by
requisite infrastructure and utilities, environmental and other constraints are known and documented, and
permitting can be fast-tracked for rapid facility operations.
The geographic region evaluated in the analysis is the Centra l Oregon Counties of Deschutes, Jefferson, and Crook.
More specifically, the primary urban areas within this broad geographic region include the Cities of Bend,
Redmond, Prineville, Madras, Sisters, and La Pine. Consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 9, this process will
outline the particular site needs and characteristics associated with potential targeted industries in the region . An
in-depth inventory of potential suitable sites in the region to meet regional economic goals and opportunities will
be a subsequent work task for the jurisdictions in the region .
While not all jurisdictions are likely to need and/or desire the large lot industrial sites necessary to accommodate
these users, the regional availability of these sites is considered desirable for all jurisdictions. As an example, a
major industrial employer locating in a jurisdiction with an appropriate site will provide employment opportunities
for the regional workforce, as well as the opportunity for support industries in other jurisdiction s. Competing as a
cohesive region allows Central Oregon to market a larger available work force, the size of which is often a key
locational criteria for firms.
The need for large lot industrial sites is a regional need, with the economic development ben efits widely
distributed regardless of the specific firm location. While individual jurisdictions could work towards establishing
independent land inventories to meet this prospective need, a regional approach appeared most responsive to
what is seen as a regional issue.
The goal of this regional effort IS NOT to generate an acreage calculation of needed vacant industrial land supply
BUT rather is to identify the variety and size range of vacant industrial sites needed to make the region attractive
to site selectors and competitive in the global marketplace - a qualitative as well as quantitative outcome. This
effort will provide an adequate supply of large industrial sites to support stable, family -wage jobs in traded sectors
in the short-term and to build future job creation capacity in the long-term (through land banking and a renewing
large-lot industrial land supply) so that established employers do not have to move out of the region to be quick,
efficient, competitive and successful.
This large-lot industrial lands supply initiative exceeds the capacity of any single jurisdiction. It is an industrial
recruitment reality that in order to be competitive, regional clout and appeal along with a critical mass of diverse,
attractive sites is needed. The 21st Century site selection factors in the global marketplace of industrial recruitment
and site development prioritize: 1) expedited site development with certainty and minimal time delay; 2)
opportunities to expand and/or diversify manufacturing activity on -site, taking advantage of existing infrastructure
and facilities investment; and 3) the availability of a high quality work force and training programs.
Central Oregon has the potential to compete well under these criteria as a region, but not as individual
jurisdictions. It is due to the Central Oregon quality of life factor that so many people and businesses have
relocated to the region in the past decade. This region has been the fastest growing in the state. The same quality
of life amenities in Central Oregon that have attracted so many new residents is a major draw and appeal for new
industries looking to locate a facility. These industries want to locate in an appealing living environment that will
serve to attract and retain talented and valued employees.
B. COMMUNITY VISION STATEMENT
The project’s Regional Advisory Committee developed a community vision, which summarizes what the region’s
economic development goals are as they particularly relate to large lot industrial demand. The following is the
stated vision:
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 7
TO BUILD A STRONG AND THRIVING REGIONAL ECONOMY BY ESTABLISHIN G AND ACTIVELY MAINTAINING A
COMPETITIVE PORTFOLI O OF LARGE LOT EMPLOYMENT SITES AND COOR DINATING PUBLIC INVESTMENTS ,
POLICIES AND REGULATIONS TO SUPPORT REGI ONAL AND STATE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
As outlined in the vision statement, the region is concerned with maintaining a competitive portfolio of large lot
industrial sites. This is viewed as supportive of regional and statewide economic development objectives. In
addition, the vision supports a coordination of investments and policies to this end.
Consistent with this vision, the focus of this analysis is on the establishment and maintenance of a short -term
competitive supply of large lot industrial sites that are “development ready”, which are available to allow the
region to compete for major industrial employers cross shopping the region against other potential locations.
III. TREND ANALYSIS
A. NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
INTRODUCTION
The trend analysis section provides the foundation of economic information that will shape realizable economic
opportunities potential for a jurisdiction, resulting potential job growth scenarios, and ultimately employment land
need over the planning horizon.
In the trend analysis, it is understood that the region, state, and nation as a whole are currently navigating
economic conditions not seen in a generation. Ultimately, current economic conditions make it difficult to produce
highly timely national trend analysis. Johnson Reid therefore, heavily utilizes the economic forecast "of record" by
the federal government, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office biannual economic forecast.
SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
Gross Domestic Product
Over the previous two quarters, economic growth has stabilized with a noticeable rebound as federal stimulus
spending has filtered into the economy and businesses inventory replenishment has spurred manufacturing
activity. Growth in the first quarter measured a 3.2% increase following a 5.6% increase during the previous
quarter. However, economic growth, as the recovery takes hold is likely to remain muted in the near term in light
of existing economic turmoil, and continued uncertainly of financial markets. On the basis of p revious recessions
and recoveries, the following factors are also expected to contribute to a more measured recovery period 2.
Evidence from the United States and other countries suggest that recovery from recessions triggered by
financial crisis and large declines in asset prices tends to be more protracted.
Changes in federal stimulus: While federal stimulus spending associated with the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act (ARRA) may have helped moderate the severity of the recession in 2009, its effec ts are
beginning to fade.
Loss of investment income and more limited availability of credit are likely to limit growth in consumer
spending in the near term.
2 Congressional Budget Office. "The Budget and Economic Outlook" January 2010.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 8
FIGURE 3: NEAR-TERM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
GDP growth during 2010 averaged a 2.9% annualized rate of growth, and is projected to expand modestly in a
range from 2.8% to 2.9% through 2013.
Employment
Since the beginning of the recession, payroll employment has fallen by greater than 7 million jobs, reflecting both
the loss of employment and a drop in the labor force. A signature element of the current recession has been both
the depth and duration of employment losses from the peak period of the economic cycle as determined by the
National Bureau of Economic Research. As of June 2010 the curren t recession is expected to be the deepest and
most lengthy period of sustained unemployment since the Great Depression.
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Congressional Budget Office
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DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 9
FIGURE 4: NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT TREND
At current, unemployment remains at a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.5%, down slightly from i ts October peak of
10.1%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain high, and lag the broader economic recovery as there is
significant slack in the economy. As the jobs situation begins to recover, workers who have quit pursuing
employment are likely to reenter the labor force, delaying unemployment recovery. However, it appears that the
national employment situation is stabilizing, with the pace of year -over-year job losses declining since the first
quarter of 2009 and finally turning positive by the beginning of 2010.
FIGURE 5: YEAR-OVER-YEAR EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, UNITED STATES
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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r
-07
Ma
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-07
Ju
l
-07
Se
p
-07
No
v
-07
Ja
n
-08
Ma
r
-08
Ma
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-08
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l
-08
Se
p
-08
No
v
-08
Ja
n
-09
Ma
r
-09
Ma
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-09
Ju
l
-09
Se
p
-09
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v
-09
Ja
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-10
Ma
r
-10
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t
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 10
Consumer Spending
While a recent upward trend is an encouraging sign of recovery, spending by households is likely to remain
constrained by slow income growth, lost wealth, and limited credit availability. Similarly, the overbuilding of
residential and commercial space and units exhibited during the real estate bubble created sizable vacancies in
both sectors. Subsequently, a rebound in investment spending is likely to be much slower than in a typical recovery
period. In the near term consumer spending growth is expected to come in below its long-term average.
FIGURE 6: PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Other Factors
Housing Starts have remained stable since mid-2009 and were actually up 17% in the first quarter on a year-
over-year basis. However, the current rate of housing starts remains noticeably weak and is just over a third of
the 15-year average.
Asset Prices remain highly volatile in light of broad based economic and to a certain extent political
uncertainty. Since January of 2008 the Dow Jones Industrial Average has displayed a Hi-Low range of roughly
5,000 points.
Inflation in the United States remains low. At 1.7%, change in the Consumer Price Index is low relative to
historical averages. Reflecting a large amount of slack remaining in the economy, inflation risk is low, and is
expected to, at best, remain unchanged, and possibly decline further in the near-term. If this trend holds true,
the impact will likely be a stable monetary policy with the Federal Reserve keeping its target rate low for some
time.
Federal Debt held by the public as a percentage of total output has reached its highest level since World War
II. Under current policies this condition is expected to exacerbate further. Persistent deficits can have severe
economic consequences, including the crowding out of private investment, limiting the effective use of fiscal
policy, and increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis.
1 In Millions of Chained (2005) dollars, Seasonally Adjusted
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis
$9,050,000
$9,100,000
$9,150,000
$9,200,000
$9,250,000
$9,300,000
$9,350,000
$9,400,000
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
Pe
r
s
o
n
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s
1
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 11
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
During the first half of the next growth cycle, GDP is forecasted to grow rapidly enough to close the considerable
gap between existing and potential GDP. Beyond the near-term, the United States economy is expected to return
to a typical growth cycle and growth at roughly the same pace as potential output, averaging 2.4% annual growth
between 2015 and 2020. While growth patterns are expected to return to normal, economic growth in the coming
decade is likely to be more measured relative to historical averages. Factors moderating long-term economic
growth include:
Demographic factors are expected to create a reduction in the potential labor force and potential hours
worked, which account for three-fourths of the economy.
Federal Debt will increasingly displace business investment and thus growth in capital services.
Total factor productivity growth is forecasted to average 1.3% annual growth, slightly above its average
rate of growth since the productivity slowdown of the 1970s but below the 60 -year average.
FIGURE 7: LONG-TERM GDP FORECAST
Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index will average 1.7% annual ly during the latter half of the coming
decade. The Federal Reserve will continue to use its monetary influence to control inflation risk in the next cycle.
The Fed is expected to maintain the rate of PCE near the top of its target range.
Long-term unemployment is expected to average 5% during the latter half of the decade, roughly equivalent to
what is considered to be the natural rate of unemployment. Over the next ten years, the U.S economy is expected
to add over 14 million employment positions according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The national
economy is forecasted to continue its exhibited trend toward more service oriented industries. A staggering 62% of
new employment is expected to be concentrated in only two industries, Education & He alth Services, and
Professional & Business Services. Over the forecast-term, only the Manufacturing and Mining & Logging industries
are expected to contract in size.
SOURCE : Congressional Budget Office and HIS Global Insight
0.0%
-2.6%
2.9%2.8%2.9%2.8%
3.3%
3.0%2.9%
2.3%2.2%2.2%2.3%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
An
n
u
a
l
G
D
P
G
r
o
w
t
h
Forecast
Actual
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 12
FIGURE 8: NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT FORECAST BY INDUSTRY 2010-2020
Factors affecting economic growth moving forward
Financial Markets: The financial situation of many banks remains delicate; however, the risk of further
deterioration is moderating. Ease and cost of credit is likely to be more limited moving forward, but far
improved from current conditions.
Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is likely to continue aggressive monetary support for the economic
recovery until the risk of higher inflation outweighs the risk of economic deterioration. The recent economic
crisis saw the Fed take a larger and more nontraditional role in its monetary influence, namely the purchase of
large amounts of mortgage backed securities on the open market. This has created a more complicated view
of Fed influence and monetary policy actions. With nearly twice its pre -recession asset holding, the Fed can
now withdraw monetary influence by either raising its target Federal Funds Rate or reducing its asset holding.
Fiscal Policy: The fiscal impacts of the ARRA have already begun to wane and are expected to turn negative by
2011. Moving forward, mounting federal deficits could limit the government's fiscal capabilities in the long-
term while placing upward pressure on tax rates.
Investment: Inventory levels are beginning to equalize, and firms are more likely to increase production to
more closely match sales. However, the spread between housing vacancies and housing starts remains high,
and a rebound in housing investment is unlikely until later in the cycle. Investment in durable equipment and
software is expected to lead the recovery. Many industry sources predict a “pent up” demand for facilities
and equipment that will materialize in terms of companies seeking immediate, development-ready locations.
Consumer Spending: Growth is expected to remain protracted through 2011. Persistently high unemployment
will limit income growth and dampen consumer spending growth even further.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics and JOHNSON REID
-97
1,108
-1,027
229
592
338
114
560
3,830
4,938
1,087
680
1,722
-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Mining & Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
T.W.U.
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business
Education & Health
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Employment Change (In 000's)
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 13
B. STATE ECONOMIC TRENDS
GENERAL INDUSTRY TRENDS
Oregon experienced exceptional employment growth between mid -2003 and 2007. Growth began slowing
towards the end of 2006 and continued through 2007. The Oregon Employment Department’s employment
estimates for second quarter 2010 indicate that Oregon is following the U.S. economy with decreasing job losses
and a turning point in the unemployment rate. Figure 7 demonstrates how closely tied the Oregon economy is to
economic trends at the national level. Since 1939, Oregon has tracked the peaks and valleys of the U.S. economy.
Also illustrated is improved diversity in Oregon’s economy as evidenced by alleviation of the volatility that plagued
Oregon during the 1980’s recession.
FIGURE 9: U.S. AND OREGON HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TREND: 1939-2009
Oregon’s economic growth since 2005, but prior to the current precipitous slowdown, is due in large part to
explosive growth in exports. For example, between first quarter 2007 and first quarter 2008, Oregon exports
increased by 23.7%, more than six points higher than the U .S. growth during the same period. Oregon’s export
growth is primarily due to export growth in agricultural products which grew by 82.2% and computer and
electronics products which grew by 24.8%. Computer and electronics account for nearly 40% of total Ore gon
exports. Several other industries experienced high growth in exports during the same period: Waste and Scrap
(+71.6%), Nonmetallic Mineral Products (+54.0%), Chemicals (+47.6%), Primary Metal Manufacturing (+31.0%),
Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities (+26.0%) and Wood Products (+23.8%).
Industry Analysis
The first quarter of 2010 represented the first positive quarterly job increase since 2008. Figure 8 outlines a
breakdown of Oregon's primary industries, where they appear to be in the cycle, and f orecasts of growth over the
near-term.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
19
3
9
19
4
2
19
4
5
19
4
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19
5
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4
19
5
7
19
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4
19
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United States
Oregon
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 14
Almost all service sectors posted seasonally adjusted job growth in early 2010. Housing market dynamics are
expected to continue dragging down the Construction and Financial Activities Sectors in the near -term, but growth
should turn positive in 2011. A similar trend is anticipated for Oregon's Wood Products industry. Positive spots in
the economy include High-Tech Manufacturing, Food Processing, and Education & Health Services.
FIGURE 10: OREGON ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND ESTIMATES BY INDUSTRY
Economic Recovery Prospects
In the State of Oregon, the consensus among economists is that the State economy is holding in a soft -patch
period, as federal stimulus and inventory investment fade by the third quarter of 2010. Businesses are beginning to
feel better about the economy, while persistently high unemployment has kept consumer sentiment down.
However, the outlook for Oregon is positive relative to other parts of the nation. In the most recent publication of
the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Coincident Index of Economic Indicators, Oregon posted a 1.2%
improvement, ranking 13th in the country and 1st in the West. Moreover, according to the Oregon Office of
Recovery
Industry Signal 2010 2011 Comments
Wood Products
Stabilizing
-5.4%5.7%
Slowly recovering but still feeling the housing
market
Computer & Electronic Equipment
Positive
0.1%3.7%
Good corporate earnings
Transportation Equipment
Contracting
-10.3%4.5%
Still among Oregon's most troubling sectors
Metals and Machinery
Stabilizing
n/a 2.8%
Sector never got too bad
Food Processing
Positive
6.8%0.8%
Among Oregon's strongest sectors
Construction
Contracting
-15.0%1.3%
Commercial real estate extending the decline
Information
Flat Growth
0.0%2.8%
Newspaper & publishers feeling a weak retail
sector
Financial Activities
Stabilizing
-1.4%2.2%
Weakness in real estate limits growth in 2010.
Professional & Business
Stabilizing
0.1%5.9%
Stable sector poised for a robust 2011 recovery
Education & Health
Positive
1.9%2.1%
Among Oregon's strongest sectors.
Leisure & Hospitality
Flat Growth
0.8%0.7%
Performed poorly in 2009 with little near-term
growth expected.
Government
Contracting
-0.5%-0.3%
Negative state and local growth partially offset
by Federal gains.
SOURCE: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis and Johnson Reid, LLC
Growth Projections
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 15
Economic Analysis (OEA), Oregon's risk of slipping into recession is now currently below the 50% mark for the first
time since late 2007.
FIGURE 11: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA'S COINCIDENT INDEX OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Employment Factors
Similar to trends at the national level, the State of Oregon began exhibiting a decrease rate of job losses (on a year-
over-year basis) beginning by mid-2009. However, at the state level jobs have yet to turn positive but are certainly
trending in a positive direction. The State's unemployment rate has moved in a positive direction, down to 10.5%
from a 2009 peak of 11.6%, seasonally adjusted. Nevertheless, Oregon's rate remains elevated relative to the
national average.
Oregon +1.2%
(Ranked 13th)
Greater than 1%
Between 0%and 1%
Between 0%and -1%
Between -1%and -2.5%
Less than -2.5%
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 16
FIGURE 12: YEAR-OVER-YEAR EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, STATE OF OREGON
Over the longer-term, Oregon’s economic growth is expected to outpace growth at the national level. By 2018, the
State’s employment is expected to grow by over 14% with Oregon's population growing by 9% over the same
interval. Additionally, Global Insight, a national leader in economic forecasting, project's Oregon's Growth State
Product to have the second highest growth rate in the nation in the coming years. Oregon’s high growth prospects
are due to a number of factors:
Population growth, primarily due to net in-migration
Relative location near Canada and Asian countries
High commodity prices
Export growth
Business Cost Advantages
Affordable housing
Biotechnology and Clean Technology
Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development
Quality of life
State tax incentives, including the Single Sales Factor Tax
Through 2017, the OEA forecasts 223,000 new jobs in the Oregon economy. Mirroring national forecasts, a
significant share (41%) are expected to fall in Professional & Business S ervices and Health Services. The state is
expected to add over 25,000 new manufacturing jobs based on the 2010 base, roughly 8,000 of which are
expected to be high wage High Tech Manufacturing jobs.
SOURCE: Oregon Employment Department
-140,000
-120,000
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Ye
a
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-ov
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r
-Ye
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r
E
m
p
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t
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 17
FIGURE 13: FORECASTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY, STATE OF OREGON 2010-2017
RISK FACTORS
While signs of systematic economic recovery are emerging, the State of Oregon still faces notable downside risk in
key sectors. Housing and real estate remain weak, and Oregon's dependence on the stability of export markets is a
regular concern. Other factors which could affect the Oregon's economic outlook include:
Credit Markets: While conditions are improving, consumers and businesses are still facing greater difficulty
getting loans relative to the previous cycle. This is also a risk reflected nationwide.
Prolonged Housing Market Weakness: While signs are emerging that the housing market has hit bottom, a
full housing recovery remains several years off. However, Oregon has fared better than most western states,
and if the economic recovery beats expectations, Oregon will be better off than most of the region.
Fading Inventory Cycle and Federal Stimulus: Much like in the national analysis, these two metrics are
credited with propping up the economy over the previous two quarters. With support broadly expected to
wane, uncertainty is on the horizon.
Global Economic Conditions: As mentioned previously, Oregon's economy is highly export based and Oregon
has above average exposure to global economic conditions, particularly conditions among its major trading
partners. Expectations for economic growth in Asian countries such as China are a positive sign for Oregon.
Energy Prices: Currently low energy prices relative to the previous cycle will be a short -term boon for the
economy, as businesses with the ability will chase cost savings. However, price increases are expected to
return commensurate with broad based economic recovery, and maintaining a cost based competitive
advantage is likely to be central to Oregon's economic development success.
Construction
Manufacturing
Wood Products
High Tech
Transportation & Equipment
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Information
Professional & Business
Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Government
SOURCE : Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA)
16,900
25,600
4,300
8,000
1,500
13,800
12,700
3,100
54,800
37,600
15,600
18,400
-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Jobs
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 18
C. LOCAL TRENDS & CONDITIONS
ECONOMIC FACTORS
The Central Oregon economy was historically dominated by Wood Products Manufacturing and Natural Resources.
In recent decades, this changed dramatically as population influences and tourism activity spurred growth in
service oriented industries and manufacturing diversity. Central Oregon bec ame among the fastest growing
regions in the West. Affluent new residents attracted to the region's quality of life brought wealth from outside the
region, fueling demand for services and housing with the infusion of their disposable income.
Central Oregon was among the hardest hit regions in the state during the current recession, with unemployment
rates remaining near 15% in the current quarter, significantly higher than the statewide average.
FIGURE 14: COMPARATIVE UNEMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS 2003-CURRENT
Several key factors have contributed to both the depth and duration of Central Oregon's economic weakness.
Firstly, industries that supplied goods and services to Central Oregon's real estate development market and served
a rapidly growing population wer e largely responsible for its robust economic expansion. With the bursting of the
housing bubble in 2007, the concentration of the regional economy dependent on real estate development
created an economic contraction as dramatic as its rise. Central Oregon has lost one in four construction jobs since
the peak of the cycle.
Secondly, Central Oregon's new service concentrated economy is far more susceptible to changes in consumer
sentiment and disposable income. The national recession's impact on tourism markets, consumer spending, and
the acquisition of vacation properties or second homes compounded Central Oregon's decline. The Central Oregon
economy was highly dependent upon “discretionary” activity, which tends to be very cyclical.
Thirdly, unemployment in Central Oregon has remained persistently high in part as the result of continued
population growth attracted to the region’s quality of life. Central Oregon maintained positive in -migration
through 2009. Coupled with stagnated employment growth, this in effect has kept unemployment high by
maintaining higher labor force levels.
SOURCE: Oregon Employment Department
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Un
e
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
R
a
t
e
Crook
Deschutes
Jefferson
Oregon
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 19
As such, Central Oregon's last year-over-year employment gain occurred in 2007, with the region posting
employment losses every quarter since. Manufacturing continues to depress the employment situation in both
Deschutes and Crook Counties, posting 15% and 16% job losses in 2009, respectively. Employment losses are
moderating however, and bright spots in the economy are emerging. Several industries including Wholesale Tr ade
and Education & Health Services have maintained growth throughout the recession and several other industries,
including Leisure & Hospitality have been showing year-over-year increases in employment in the second quarter
of 2010.
POPULATION
Central Oregon's dramatic Population rise was largely the effect of significant in -migration. During the 2000-2009
decade, Central Oregon averaged 4.0% annual population growth while adding more 65,500 new residents.
Despite an influx of retirement age residents, 55% of residents are working age between the age of 25 and 64. This
is consistent with the statewide average.
FIGURE 15: LOCAL POPULATION GROWTH TREND
The City of Bend is the primary demographic hub in the region, accounting for 37% of the regional popu lation and
44% of growth during the last decade. Over the next 20-years, the OEA estimates Central Oregon will continue
demographic growth at a 2.1% annual pace adding 45,000 new residents by 2020. However, this State developed
rate of growth may be slightly conservative in nature, Deschutes County's 2004 coordinated population forecast is
projecting 47,000 new residents in Deschutes County alone over the same interval.
EDUCATION
An area’s level of educational attainment is often used as a proxy for the skill level of the population base. From an
economic development perspective, Central Oregon is consistent with regional averages, with 29% of the working
age population having at least a bachelor’s degree. However, a 2010 study of Central Oregon's (Deschutes County)
competitiveness evaluated Central Oregon in light of a sample of competitive economic peers in the west. The
study found Central Oregon to be in the middle of the road relative to its peers. An educated and skilled workforce
is a competitive asset among Central Oregon's target industries. An inability to "stand out" in this metric may limit
the region's ability to recruit employers within specific industries.
SOURCE: Portland State Population Research Center
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
n
u
a
l
C
h
a
n
g
e
Po
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
Population
Annual Change
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 20
FIGURE 16: COMPARISON OF EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
WAGES
Since 2002, wage levels in Central Oregon have averaged a 3.2% annual rate of growth, comparatively better than
a 2.8% annual growth rate at the State level. Deschutes County's average 2009 wage level of $35,295 was well
below the statewide average. Lower relative wage rates coupled with housing affordability concerns can limit the
region's ability to attract a high quality workforce to the region.
FIGURE 17: CENTRAL OREGON WAGE TRENDS
SOURCE: Headwaters Economics, U.S. Census Bureau, and Johnson Reid, LLC
28%
33%
29%
23%
26%
34%
57%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Oregon
Portland
Central Oregon
Kootenai County, ID
Washington County, UT
Ada County, ID
Boulder County, CO
% of Working Age Pop. With a Bachelor's Degree
SOURCE: Oregon Employment Department, Covered Employment Survey
$28,253
$29,124
$30,091
$31,491
$33,324
$34,315
$35,047 $35,295
$20,000
$22,000
$24,000
$26,000
$28,000
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Av
e
r
a
g
e
A
n
n
u
a
l
W
a
g
e
$40,740
$46,233
$35,295
$20,000 $27,500 $35,000 $42,500 $50,000
Oregon
Portland Metro
Bend MSA
Average Annual Wage
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 21
IV. TARGET INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
A. LARGE-LOT TRENDS AND DYNAMICS
Changes in global business patterns have pressured firms to develop more capital intense production models,
placed a greater emphasis on economies of scale, as well as production efficiency and flexibility. The result has
been the emergence of a clear real estate trend, creating a global demand for large development ready industrial
sites. As such, large, development ready sites have emerged as one of Oregon's most severe development
challenges.
Workforce characteristics, quality of life, proximity to large U.S. West Coast markets, and coordinated public
involvement and recruitment have landed Oregon "on the radar" of many large-scale projects shopping for sites in
the United States. Many of these projects have been concentrated in cutting edge industries importan t to the
State of Oregon's economic development targets. The state and region have had measured success in the
placement of large-scale projects, with lack of suitable sites (size & infrastructure), lack of market choice, and time
duration to entitle and develop sites commonly cited as development constraints.
Large scale global firms represent an important prospective economic development engine for the state and
region. Global scale firms have the ability to open new markets, bring cutting edge technolo gy to the region, are
associated with high wage jobs, and expend significant capital investment. As an additional benefit, the high
assessed value of these projects contribute significantly to the stability of the tax base that allows provision of
necessary services to all residents of the region. Therefore, the goal of this process is to evaluate Central Oregon's
opportunities for large scale economic growth in light of statewide planning goals and practices, as well as land
and infrastructure availability.
LARGE LOT TRENDS
Shifting global market factors have increased the need for large lot industrial sites over the last several decades.
Warehouse properties have substantially increased in size as distribution reflects increasing returns to scale as well
as the concentration of production in larger production facilities. Production facilities are also increasingly scale d
for global as opposed to regional or national needs. The following are examples of recent warehouse project s that
have located to the State of Oregon, as compiled by Business Oregon:
Jurisdiction Tenant Site Size Square Footage
Albany Target 175 acres 1.3 million
Hermiston Wal Mart 200 acres 1.3 million
Lebanon Lowes 204 acres +1.3 million
Salem Home Depot 50 acres 500,000
As shown in the preceding table, the emerging module for distribution facilities now regularly tops 1.0 million
square feet of building area, with site sizes in excess of 200 acres. Over 55 projects have shopped the State of
Oregon over the last ten years with site demand over 50 acres, averaging over 5 new projects per year. Business
Oregon currently has 10 estimated outstanding leads in this size category.
Manufacturing has also shifted to larger site needs, with examples including Genentech, SolarWorld and Intel’s
new expansion in Hillsboro. Each of these required sites are in excess of 50 acres in size, with Intel’s located on
land held in reserve adjacent to a currently operating facility. While these project s show a need for large sites,
they also speak to a desire for even larger sites than immediately need ed to provide flexibility. While Intel didn’t
immediately need the land used for their recent expansion when building the initial Ronler Acres facility, the
flexibility provided by this excess property made the site more competitive vis-à-vis alternative locations that had a
greater probability of limiting future expansion options.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 22
Business Oregon estimates that they see approximately 15 serious inquiries a year for large scale manufacturing
sites. Combined with warehouse/distribution inquiries, Business Oregon see s over 20 annual inquiries a year
statewide for large lot industrial sites. As not all leads are picked up by Business Oregon, one would expect the
overall activity to be significantly higher.
Economic Development for Central Oregon (EDCO) is currently working with 72 companies seriously considering a
location in Central Oregon, of which five would require a site 20-50 acres in size, while three would require a site in
excess of 100 acres. Industries that have contacted EDCO for large acreage sites in clude the following:
Distribution and warehousing;
Data centers;
Renewable energy equipment manufacturing;
Energy production facilities (biomass, solar, geothermal, synthetic fuels);
High technology; and
General durable goods manufacturing.
Johnson Reid completed a survey of industrial brokers active within the State of Oregon in 2010, asking a series of
questions with respect to market activity for large lot industrial sites. These surveys revealed the following:
Industrial brokers surveyed fielded an estimate of eleven 50+ acre parcel queries annually over the last
ten years, largely by technology manufacturers and warehouse/distribution users.
Technology manufacturers comprised 35% of all 50+ acre site queries over the last decade, indicating
continued viability and continued growth potential for the cluster.
For every public lead that generated a large site query fielded by a broker, private brokerages fielded
nearly 3 large site queries independent of public economic development involvement.
The State loses at least one large site query annually due explicitly to site unavailability, however Johnson
Reid concludes more are also likely lost due to site unavailability but limited broker involvement and firm
confidentiality prevent verification.
Almost one of every three sites purchased by large users over the last ten years has not yet realized
development. In other words supply capacity should include at least 33% land investment and
“transaction demand” capacity to enable firms adequate choice for the large site market to function.
In summary, Business Oregon fields over 20 inquiries annually for large lot industrial land, while EDCO fields an
additional amount. If the broker experience holds true, the actual volume of prospective site queries is in excess
of 80 annually statewide.
IMPORTANCE OF LARGE-LOT SUPPLY AND MARKET CHOICE
Oregon is entering an increasingly competitive dynamic in the recruitment and retention of global large scale
employers and producers. In their search for suitable site locations for business expansion, firms typically follow a
site selection process and evaluation of regional characteristics and livability, workforce/industry dynamics,
operating costs/incentives, and availability of a selection of sites ready for immediate development. A
development-ready site, or a “shovel-ready” site, is one in which site improvement can begin within 180 days of
purchase and development application. Such sites are served by requisite infrastructure and utilities,
environmental and other constraints are known and documented, and permitting can be fast -tracked for rapid
facility operations. Many large business location searches are conducted by hired site selectors; their task is to
present their clients with a “short list” of feasible options. Because of their mandate, site selectors admittedly look
for reasons to remove sites from consideration because of some inadequacy in characteristics; their job is not to
keep sites in consideration based on promised improvements in any deficient condition.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 23
Johnson Reid has organized this process into a
simple model that follows the progression of firms'
decision criteria in location analysis. In addition to
identifying a progression of selection criteria,
Johnson Reid have found land diversity and market
choice to be of particular importance. Industrial
recruiters at Business Oregon and other entities
around the state strongly assert that a lack of sites
puts Oregon at a distinct competitive disadvantage
relative to competitor communities across the
nation. The consensus has emerged that a general
lack of development-ready sites to choose from
eliminates a city or region from contention very
early in the site selection process. Moreover,
market choice among several sites further
preserves price stability and transaction certainty
that tends to deteriorate in a single-seller scenario,
threatening placement of potential firm.
Additional industrial development and business trends affecting large-lot industrial demand include:
Companies trending toward expanded portfolios.
Among key industries such as high-tech/renewable energy manufacturing and biosciences, evolving
production models requiring substantial capital investment and reinvestment have created a need for
land capacity beyond current needs. Firms require land holdings with flexibility and expansion capacity .
The value of this flexibility to a firm exceeds the marginal cost of holding land for many firms, leading to
firms seeking sites often well in excess of immediate space needs.
Higher fuel and energy costs are forcing firms into more regionally distinct operations for sou rcing their
raw materials and/or distributing their finished products.
Large, available vacant structures are a popular commodity for some industries where time -to-market is a
critical element of location decisions.
Location incentives are playing an increasing role in location criteria, at least in the context of “leveling
the playing field” among competitor locations.
Low cost, high capacity existing utility infrastructure is emerging as a deterministic quality in site criteria
for many targeted industries; if capacity does not currently exist it must be available within the project
timelines for sites to remain in consideration.
For most companies making location decisions, land is a “means to an end”; that is, they need the land to locate
some kind of facility so they can produce the product or service that is their primary business. They want:
Diverse sites in a region to choose from in the early stages of their search; most companies want to pick
and choose.
A single point of contact/negotiation; companies are not interested in protracted negotiations with
multiple parties; they want the process to be as quick and painless as possible.
Prospects are very concerned how the land procurement process affects their project time lines and
ultimate time-to-market of their product; often, in fact, the actual land price is of lesser consideration to
the company than how quickly and easily the property transaction moves forward.
Prospects are highly unlikely to be patient when it comes to services (water, wastewater, power); the
availability of service needs to fit into the project timeline, and not be a roadblock issue.
Livability
and
Site Availability
Decision
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 24
Assembling multiple smaller parcels into a cohesive “large lot” product can be a very difficult task. Among the
barriers to land assemblies are:
Property owners unwilling to sell (for many reasons: price, tax impact, sentimental value, replacement
costs, and viable alternative locations).
The sheer cost of the land; owners have an inflated expectation, or perhaps only one ownership out of a
larger site assembly is a problem.
Ownership interests are fractured (often true in family inheritance situations); this issue often is
combined with absentee ownership, so that owners don’t really have a “stake” in the transaction and its
impact on the community.
Regulatory environment (zoning, environmental overlays, mandated parcel size).
Infrastructure demands caused by land assembly, and the commensurate ability to finance necessary
improvements.
Legal issues, including clear title, easements, and encumbrances.
As these possible barriers are viewed from the standpoint of the business making a location decision, it is not
difficult to perceive why multiple parcels often represent a “deal-killer” to companies who do not have the time,
patience, or expertise to wade through a possible quagmire of issues.
The key to the site selection process is that it is essential for candidate sites to be truly development -ready instead
of simply “buildable”. A general lack of development -ready sites to choose from eliminates a city or region from
contention early in the site selection process. In addition, firms in the site selection process prefer to have
multiple options within a region that meet their criteria. Ideally this would include multiple ownerships, a s well as
multiple jurisdictions. This allows for competitive pricing, a wider range of options, as well as making the area
more attractive for site visitation.
COMPETITIVE INVENTORIES
While the State’s land use system is concerned with meeting demand over the next 20-years, of more critical
importance is the availability and maintenance of a competitive inventory of readily available sites. As the Central
Oregon region considers new, large industrial site supply, the region specifically seeks to provide a supply of large,
development-ready sites that is competitive with other markets nationwide.
Johnson Reid prepared a number of surveys over the last several years, documenting the supply of development-
ready site inventory (180-day) marketed by national competitors. Johnson Reid would underscore that at least
two of the competitors shown – Albuquerque and Austin – have identified replacement industrial land supply
exceeding a thousand acres according to officials interviewed. The City of Hillsboro is also actively working
towards increasing its large lot industrial acreage inventory.
Many site selectors will require the ability to review multiple options in the region in order to reduce the risks
associated with varying levels of environmental mitigation, local government policy, site avoidance factors and
planned levels of infrastructure utility investment.
Competitive
Market Site Count Acreage Site Count Acreage Site Count Acreage
Colorado Springs 20 1,500 5 500 25 2,000
Raleigh 2 126 12 1,470 14 1,596
Austin (Round Rock)5 380 6 855 11 1,235
Albuquerque 3 225 9 900 12 1,125
Hillsboro 1 78 0 0 1 78
SOURCE: Johnson Reid Survey (Feb. 2010)
50-100 Acre Sites 100+ Acre Sites 50+ Acre Sites
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 25
Central Oregon competes with regions across the country that offer significantly greater development -ready
industrial land supply, selection, diversity, and lower land cost. Continued inability to factor competitiveness as
borne out by surveyed industrial broker activity, including diversity of large industrial site supply and competitive
cost, sacrifices the region’s long-term competitiveness for these key industries. As noted by EDCO, “with many
options (depending upon the geographic scope of the search) we have seen a resistance by site selectors,
corporate real estate professionals and company representatives to invest the time and travel to visit the region
without more than just one or two large lots to consider.”
B. STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES IN THE CENTRAL OREGON ECONOMY
In June of 2010 Deschutes County and the consultant team moderated the Central Oregon Industrial Lands Forum.
Participants in the forum discussed economic development trends at a national and regional level, as well as
specific opportunities and challenges for Central Oregon.
In this section, the findings of this session are summarized, as well as additional input from the Regional Advisory
Committee and the consultant team. The Central Oregon region has a number of strengths with respect to
economic development, including the following key attributes:
Quality of Life – The region’s extensive recreation amenities and commercial services base are a
substantial advantage. While the concentration of destination resorts in the area attest to the
attractiveness of these assets, their existence also supports a much more substantial services amenity
base than the full-time population could support. This makes it easier to attract executives a s well as a
quality work force. With advancements in telecommunications, firms are more footloose now than
traditionally, and quality of life criteria play a greater role in location decisions.
Access – The Central Oregon communities serve as the commercial hub of a much broader rural area. In
addition, Highway 97 provides a major north/south alternative to Interstate 5. Central Oregon’s location
makes it a natural commercial services hub for a very broad area. While Highway 97 is not perceived to
be of equal value as Interstate 5 as a north/south link, its function is equivalent and sometime superior for
many prospective firms.
Commercial Air Service – The Redmond Municipal Airport provides commercial service links, while Bend,
Madras and Prineville have general aviation airports. This is supportive of firms making location decisions
for quality of life reasons, while still maintaining a functional and convenient link to major metropolitan
areas.
Rail – The region has made major investments in the Regional Freight Depot, supported by Connect
Oregon grants.
Natural Resource Proximity.
The primary challenges facing the area are related to scale and accessibility. While the region as a whole has a
significant population base, none of the jurisdictions are considered large enough to meet many firms initial
screening. In addition, Central Oregon’s distance from the Interstate system is a major impediment for many
prospective firms.
The competitive characteristics of Central Oregon can be strengthened through a regional approach. Individual
jurisdictions in the region are too small to be considered viable candidate s for many of the targeted firms. The
region acts as a cohesive economic unit, sharing work force and commercial amenities, and should be marketed as
such to increase its perceived scale in the market.
The following is a more detailed profile of the individual strengths and challenges facing each of Central Oregon's
major communities with respect to the suitability for large-lot industrial.3
3 Profiles gathered from the June 28, 2010 Central Oregon Industrial Lands Forum.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 26
MADRAS (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
The City of Madras has some strong industrial sites near the airport, including lar ge lot industrial properties with
rail access. The City’s position at the intersection of Highways 26 and 97 provides logistical advantages,
particularly for firms needing access to the Portland metropolitan area and Interstate 84. The airport is also a
major facility that provides an amenity for certain businesses. Within Central Oregon, the Madras area is at the
northern edge of the population and economic base, placing it at a disadvantage for regional distribution as well as
for firms looking for large work forces.
Strengths/Advantages Challenges/Disadvantages
Industrial airport The Oregon Transportation Planning Rule is an
issue on Hwy 97
Airport has improvements scheduled There is no a continuous 4-lane highway
between Madras and Bend
Available industrial sites proximate to rail Relative skill set of work force
Opal Springs provides ample water Some areas do not have large surplus of gas
and electricity
Strong agricultural and manufacturing section
businesses
Most proximate to the Portland metro area
Most proximate to I-84
Highways 97 and 26 run through middle of
Madras
Development costs substantially than other
Central Oregon cities
LA PINE (DESCHUTES COUNTY)
Similar to Madras, La Pine’s position at the southern edge of the Central Oregon region places it at disadvantage
for regional-serving distribution. The City does have some advantages for firms looking to serve both Central
Oregon as well as the Klamath Falls area to the south.
Strengths/Advantages Challenges/Disadvantages
There are industrial sites available Sewer and water districts independent of City
They do have some larger lots available Sewer and water systems not coordinated
The County is in control of some of the sites In transition between County codes and City
codes
Most proximate to Northern California,
Klamath Falls
Transportation challenges; necessary
improvements
Active economic development efforts
Very near passenger rail line (Chemault)
PRINEVILLE (CROOK COUNTY)
While the City of Prineville is located at the eastern edge of the Central Oregon region, it has strong rail access and
relatively easy truck/auto access to Redmond, Madras and Bend. The Regional Freight Depot represents a major
public investment. The City has a reputation as being business friendly, and the recent siting of Facebook has
raised the jurisdiction’s profile in economic development circles. The area has excellent and affordable housing
stock. While the City has a number of industrial sites, many of these are either poorly located or constrained. The
City has historically competed well within the region as a relatively low cost location with a strong labor force, but
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 27
this advantage has diminished somewhat with the declines in the region’s real estate markets. Sites at the
western edge of town are best located to serve regional needs.
Strengths/Advantages Challenges/Disadvantages
Ease of permitting Sites are a distance off Hwy. 97 and Hwy. 126
has limited capacity
Rail access/freight depot – City owned and
operated short line rail service and the
Regional Freight Depot
Grade differentials in sites make some easier
to serve via rail (lower level) than others
(higher level)
General aviation airport adjacent to industrial
properties with expansion underway
Ochoco Lumber mill site bordered by 2
highways so “double indemnity” for any
development activity triggering TPR issues.
Recognized as future mixed use site.
Larger, available workforce
Potential large lot industrial lands not
protected under current zoning from splitting
into smaller parcels.
Somewhat warmer climate, but cool evenings Water supply challenges
Community welcoming of
development/newcomers/jobs
Prineville is centrally located to
Redmond/Bend with relatively lower
priced land for industrial use to other Central
Oregon area
Facebook data center under development at
airport location causing high interest by other
firms seeking future locations
BEND (DESCHUTES COUNTY)
As the largest city in Central Oregon, Bend is most commonly cited as the desired location for new firms
considering locating in the region. The City offers a wide range of commercial services and executive housing
options, and as a result of recent trends, provides affordable housing as well. The current scarcity of industrial
land in the city is the primary challenge to future economic development, with sites that are small, expensive and
often facing substantial transportation problems.
Strengths/Advantages Challenges/Disadvantages
Largest metro area in region Scarcity of industrial land
Regional employment center Price of industrial land
Most “urban” of regional cities Overall costs to develop
Immediate access to natural amenities Relatively complex/sophisticated permitting
process
Central Oregon Community College main
campus Water and sewer capacity limited
Good communication infrastructure TPR is an issue
Juniper Ridge master-planned mixed-use
community
Ongoing “discussions” with LCDC about UGB
expansion (remand, negotiations, etc.)
While Bend has the greatest level of services and scale, its vacant industrial land inventory is severely limited.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 28
REDMOND (DESCHUTES COUNTY)
The City of Redmond serves as a major hub of the region, and the commercial airport provides a key advantage.
The community has historically seen land prices somewhat below Bend, and is well situated to serve the region
due to its central location. The area has some small and medium sized industrial sites, and the range of
commercial services trails only Bend in the region.
Strengths/Advantages Challenges/Disadvantages
Commercial airport
465 acres located in the industrial area in the
city limits currently in holding zone of Open
Space Park Reserve – rezoning prevented by
TPR.
Available water/wastewater capacity Affordability of industrial land coming back
into line with market
Good telecom infrastructure Can large public entity land holdings (irrigation
district and DSL) be brought into play?
Central regional location allows workforce
drawn from all over region
TPR is always a factor when land is being
considered for development
Available small/medium sites The diverse public entities that own land might
have different objectives
COCC technology center
Family-centric, stable community
Enjoys a business friendly reputation; Ease and
speed of permitting
BNSF rail mainline through town
Prineville freight depot/short line railroad
SISTERS (DESCHUTES COUNTY)
The City of Sisters is located at the western edge of region, and is poorly situated for serving the broader region
and capitalizing upon the depth of the workforce. The community does offer a strong amenity base for its size, as
well as extensive executive housing options nearby.
Strengths/Advantages Challenges/Disadvantages
Natural amenities Small community (2,000 population)
Small airport Possible expansion land not in city limits
Streamlined permitting process Transportation system needs funding, but
some elements coming into place
Large parcels abut city limits Available lots are plotted into small parcels in
industrial parks
Community is interested in/supportive of
economic development
80 acre Forest Service site in town might
become available which could trigger TPR
issues
Just joined Redmond’s E zone Possible water/wastewater limitations (not
really clear)
C. TARGET INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES IN CENTRAL OREGON
Led by the Economic Development for Central Oregon (EDCO) in participation with local leaders, the Central
Oregon region has gone through the lengthy process of identifying specific industry sectors for business
recruitment, retention, and entrepreneurial support. Several of these industries have had successful results to -
date, while others are relative young in Central Oregon. In the summaries below, Johnson Reid draws largely from
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 29
EDCO's evaluation of industries in Central Oregon as well as extensive research and evaluation produced as a part
of the Oregon Business Plan.
Renewable Energy Development
Renewable or clean energy development is a global industry on the rise. In 2008 Global Insight forecasted U.S.
employment growth related to "green industries" would reach 2.5 million over the next ten years. In Oregon, solar
manufacturing has been an early entrant, taking advantage of Oregon's existing and highly related semiconductor
industry and proximity to large U.S. West Coast markets. Central Oregon currently has a small but diverse cluster
of renewable energy related industries ranging from solar power and fuel cells to wind power and biomass
production.
Aviation/Aerospace
There is an existing concentration relating to Redmond's airport and Bend's metro area. Specifically , Lancair has
been operating in Redmond since 1992. Oregon's aviation industry includes 200 firms providing manufacturing,
first and second supply chain services, and product distribution . Oregon's kit plane manufacturers also provide
over 70 percent of all of the kit planes sold within the U.S. each year to global customers.
Software
Oregon is home to more than 1,500 software companies, and is particularly strong in the areas of: electronic
design automation, financial solutions, open source, educational a nd training software, embedded software and
healthcare applications. Central Oregon itself is home to over two dozen established software engineering firms.
Software development firms are typically smaller in scale, where quality of life and telecom infras tructure is
important. However, the Central Oregon region and the State of Oregon face both human and financial capital
challenges to further development of the Software/IT cluster.
Biosciences
Oregon’s bioscience industry has over 600 companies and research institutions. Biosciences include research and
development, medical devices, medical diagnostics, human and animal therapeutics, pharmaceuticals, reagents,
research services, bio-agriculture, bio-fuels, and medical software operations. Bioscience is a $2.5 billion traded
sector industry in Oregon. While Oregon is not seen as a bioscience hub nationally, Central Oregon is home to a
segment of Oregon's promising bioscience future, specializing in pharmaceutical research and development.
However, biosciences are highly workforce dependent and are often related to large scale higher education
resources, which are currently absent in the region.
Data Centers
Data centers are an emerging economic development engine in Oregon bringing significant capital investment to
regional communities. The Central Oregon region offers key critical components in the recruitment of data center
projects, specifically affordable electric power, municipal water and sewer capacity, robust telecom infrastructure,
ability to attract technical talent to operate data center facilities, and a climate that can significantly lower power
usage. These factors were instrumental in EDCO's recruitment of both Bend Broadband’s Vault project and
Facebook's $188 million investment in Prineville.
Recreation Equipment
Oregon is home to some of the world’s most recognized brands in footwear and sports apparel. Locally
headquartered firms include Nike, Columbia Sportswear and the North American headquarters of Adidas.
Additionally, hotbed recreational regions such as Hood River and Central Oregon have long seen start -up
recreational equipment firms flourish into significant contributors to local economies. Central Oregon specifically i s
home to diverse range of mountain, river, and recreational vehicle and equipment manufacturers.
Higher Education
Central Oregon is just beginning the process of establishing planning efforts in the establishment of a higher
education facility in the region. Local policy market and economic development professionals realize the broader
importance of higher education on workforce quality, culture, and business development. Higher education
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 30
facilities are typically campus style development requiring large affordable sites with good telecom and
transportation infrastructure. Sites need to be proximate to population centers.
Regional Distribution Centers
Central Oregon can play a role in distribution, with Highway 97 representing an option to the I -5 Corridor. Option
planning is taking a larger role in logistics and is expected to play a bigger role in diversifying risk away from a
single supply route.
Wood Products
The Wood Products cluster is a long standing economic driver in Central Oregon. The cluster includes primary and
secondary wood products, machinery manufacturing, paper & pulp manufacturing, wholesaling, and business
management. Where Central Oregon was once a primary wood products region, secondary wood products
manufacturing now accounts for 25 % of all manufacturing employment in the region. While wood products have
largely been a low growth industry over the last decade, the Central Oregon region is targeting additional value -
added firms. Moreover, innovated new -age primary lumber production models have emerged in recent years of
which Central Oregon would have a distinct competitive advantage.
D. SITE/RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS OF KEY DEVELOPMENT CLASSES
Figure 18 highlights specific land, workforce, and operations characteristics among key industrial classifications in
Central Oregon. For this stage in this analysis, Manufacturers fall under a single category, whereas subsequent
drafts will explicitly underscore development site needs and characteristics of specific industries.
FIGURE 18: KEY INDUSTRIAL LAND/INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS
SOURCE: EDCO
The findings in Figure 18 reflect the findings in the progressive criteria "funnel model". With the exception of da ta
centers which have highly unique utility requirements, availability of a qualified and ample workforce is of upmost
importance. For some industries such as Distribution and Warehousing, access to transportation networks is a key
concern.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 31
TARGETED INDUSTRIES WITH LARGE LOT NEEDS
While it is unlikely that several industries being targeted by communities within the Central Oregon region will
generate significant demand for large-lot industrial land, some sectors have a demonstrated track record for
creating enormous exogenous absorption of properly -zoned industrial sites. For example, software, recreational
equipment and aviation/aerospace all have precedent for large corporate campuses: respectively Microsoft in
Redmond, Washington; Thor Industries in Elkhart, Indiana; Cessna in Wichita, Kansas. Typical companies,
however, require building footprints well under the 40 -50 acre threshold we have defined as a large lot industrial
site. These needs are generally met by the existing land use process in Oregon.
Industries requiring large acreages that hold promise for the Central Oregon region include:
Data centers
Warehouse/distribution centers
Select high technology/biosciences operations
Changing economic conditions and global trends are impacting each of these industries, creating opportunities for
rural and small metropolitan areas. The tri-county region already has established operations in each of these
sectors and precedent for large-acreage users. Appendix B contains a summary of other geographic areas where
each of these sectors has grown from a similar small foundation to become national leaders – some in a relatively
short period of time. Additionally, any one of these sectors has the potential to create the exogenous demand that
would trigger the need for additional large, industrial-zoned land in Central Oregon since so few of these sites exist
– particularly in the region’s largest cities.
CENTRAL OREGON VIABILITY FOR THE DATA CENTER INDUSTRY
According to global data center site selector David Aaroe, (co-founder and principal, Fortis Construction), Central
Oregon has all the elements to rival Central Washington as a top location for the data center industry in North
America. Other site selectors from across the country are already focused on the tri-county area as a result of
Oregon’s largest data center project with the construction of the Facebook campus at Prineville (currently 125
acres, 300,000 sf).
A key component that could lead to explosive growth in the Central Oregon area is enormous Bonneville Power
Administration power transmission lines that transport electricity from hydroelectric generation the Columbia
Gorge to California. These transmission lines are located such that Prineville, Redmond, Bend, and La Pine all
become viable locations for the data center industry. This steady, inexpensive base load electric power is in high
demand by the data center industry.
Low cost, high capacity power is at the very top of the site location criteria list for the data center industry. The
ability to quickly and reliably add load to the system is also critical. As quickly illustrated by the national district -
by-district map below, tri-county rates are well below the national average for electricity in all sectors. For
industrial customers, Central Oregon providers offer rates up to nearly 20% below the national average and 50%
below neighboring California where considerable data center activity is currently centered.
“The combination of low cost—not the lowest—reliable electric power, incentives, telecom capacity
and the area’s climate could make the Central Oregon area as competitive as any in North America for
the data center industry.”
2011 presentation by David Aaroe, Principal, Fortis Construction
A leading global data center site selection firm
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 32
FIGURE 19: INDUSTRIAL POWER RATES
Another key factor is the requirement for robust telecom infrastructure. Over the past 12 years, more than $100
million in infrastructure has been invested in the region, including a self-healing fiber loop for incumbent provider
CenturyLink (formerly Qwest), numerous fiber rings by competitive local and regional providers and multiple
Points of Presence (POP). With multiple telecom routes via San Francisco, Portland and Seattle, the tri -county
region’s access to markets in Asia is especially good.
Perhaps one of the greatest natural assets the area possesses for data centers is the significant year -round cooling
factor offered by the high desert climate. Simply stated, cool nights year -round and low humidity enable data
centers to use less power for cooling servers—making the center much more cost efficient.
Reasonable power costs, power savings made possible by the region’s climate, the lack of a sales tax in Oregon and
meaningful incentives (property and incomes tax exemptions) all combine to make the Central Oregon region a
globally competitive location.
Because of the significant investments characterized by data centers both in mission critical
infrastructure and physical plant (typical cost per square foot is $1,000), most companies requ ire large industrial
sites for future expansion. The current inventory of appropriately zoned sites with proximity to needed
infrastructure in Central Oregon is potentially uncompetitive, and as such could be a major impediment to further
growth of the sector for next 10-15 years.
The economic development community recognizes that most jobs come from existing companies, and fostering
entrepreneurship and retention expansion of existing traded-sector companies is a major focus of regional efforts.
Recruitment of new companies in new and existing industries, however, is an important component of any
successful economic development program and diversification strategy. New companies bring a different mix of
professional and technical talent to communities that can spawn other businesses and technologies. Intel’s
expansion to Hillsboro in the late 1970s is a good example in Oregon. At that time it was a recruitment project, but
in the subsequent decades the global leader in semiconductor technology a nd production spun off more than 100
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 33
companies that significantly contributed to the overall diversification of Oregon and of course many well -paying
jobs.
CENTRAL OREGON VIABILITY FOR THE HIGH TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY
While the Central Oregon region clearly has different attributes than either the Hillsboro or Austin examples
outlined in Appendix B, it does have some of the key components that make the high technology sector a viable
option for industry targeting. Several important technology sectors have a foothold in the region including:
Semiconductor and peripherals manufacturing (Microsemi, TriQuint Semiconductor, Nanometrics)
Renewable/alternative energy equipment and software (Advanced Energy, Idatech, PV Trackers, E1, InEnTec)
Software (Vertex, GL Solutions, Navis, Manzama, AudetteMedia, Team Unify)
Biosciences (Bend Research, MediSISS, Agere Pharmaceutical, Phillips, Accelrys).
This small but successful and diversified group of high technology companies provides a foundation on which to
build a broader industry, provided that other site location fundamentals are in place.
The Central Oregon region scores well on most critical location factors. Power rates are among the lowest in the
nation and nearly half of those in neighboring California. Not all communities are equally prepared, but generally
water and wastewater capacity is adequate to accommodate high technology industry needs. Oregon’s property
tax incentives offered through the Enterprise Zone program generally favor high technology projects with
significant capital expenditures, much as it benefits companies in the data center industry. Higher education
infrastructure to develop local scientific and technical talent needs improvement within the region, and is currently
considered by site selectors to be a barrier, however many technology companies acknowledge that most talent
recruitment today is done on a national or international basis. Access to local technical, engineering, and scientific
coursework and degrees are a plus and can be a swing factor between one site or another, however an area with
quality of life and some technical talent can attract other technology employers. It happened in Hillsboro and
Austin not because of the university infrastructure there, but because other site location factors worked (access to
power, water & wastewater facilities) and there were well educated people who chose to live there or could be
recruited from other places.
A potentially significant barrier is the lack of large industrial lot options that have proper zoning and necessary
infrastructure, specifically in Bend and Redmond which have been of greatest interest for compa nies, site selectors
and corporate real estate professionals. That Bend, one of Oregon’s seven largest cities and among the fastest
growing (both in terms of net jobs the past decade and population), has no industrial -zoned lots over 20 acres
would be inconceivable in most states.
According to EDCO, the sector with the most activity in terms of location decisions and new production facilities in
the past five years has been renewable energy equipment and related manufacturers. Included are solar power
panel fabrication (thin film and silicon) polycrystalline refinement, and solar power generation – all which require
large acreages with appropriate zoning. Biomass and gas -fired electric power plants also have a need for large
industrial acreage, but usually prefer a rural location if adequate infrastructure can be developed cost effectively.
While existing computer and electronics manufacturers in the area have historically operated in facilities on
acreages less than 40 acres, there are many examples in Oregon and across the country where once small high
technology firms have grown into large campuses. Hewlett-Packard in Boise, ID and Corvallis, OR; Micron in Boise,
Microsoft in Redmond, WA all serve as excellent examples of local companies that organically grew into large,
multi-building campuses that greatly exceed the 40 -50 acre threshold established by this REOA.
CENTRAL OREGON VIABILITY FOR THE WAREHOUSE & DISTRIBUTION INDUSTRY
Because of its removed location from major interstates, the tri -county has not historically been a target for the
warehouse and distribution industry. Still, some significant distribution activities do occur – primarily tire
distribution by the Les Schwab Company, which has over 2 million square feet under roof at its warehouse
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 34
operations in Prineville. There, tires and auto components manufactured globally are consolidated and distributed
to 400+ stores in a seven state area. The company is the #1 highest volume customer for the Port of Portland and
operates one of the largest distribution operations in Oregon.
In addition to this warehouse, several durable goods manufacturers in the area have
larger-scale distribution nationally from their Central Oregon location, including
Bright Wood Corporation, Deschutes Brewery, Keith Manufacturing, Contact
Industries, Jeld-Wen, and Advanced Energy (PV Powered). Online retailer
Altrec.com also consolidates and distributes orders directly from its
Redmond, OR warehouse and does so cost competitively vis -à-vis other
west coast locations.
Over the past decade, consolidation has been the dominating trend in
warehouse and distribution – fewer but larger DCs located in strategic
geographic area – to achieve greater efficiencies and cost advantages
offered by economies of scale. With the sharp rise in fuel prices in
recent years, industry experts are predicting that the industry could
migrate to smaller facilities serving smaller distribution areas. Key to this
more dispersed model is the availability of rail to more cost effectively
transport goods (approximately ⅓) within the regional distribution area.
Rather than the 11 or 9 state model, respectively, offered by Salt Lake City, UT
or Reno-Sparks, NV the smaller 5 to 7 state model successfully utilized by Les
Schwab for the past 50 years might prove more cost effective with $5-6 dollar
per gallon fuel prices.
Led by the Prineville Railway, the nation’s only municipally -owned short-line railroad, Central Oregon has been
working to expand its ability to provide logistics and freight connections between Class I railroads and traditional
truck distribution models. Over the past several years, the Prineville Railway has invested nearly $10 mi llion in a
new freight depot, track, and railcar handling equipment to efficiently transfer rail freight to trucks either for final
destination delivery or for warehousing. With ongoing global upward pressure on oil prices, these projects could
be the beginning of a wave of investments in to accommodate a growing transloading facility. Planning is already
underway for a unit-train switch yard upgrade adjacent to the UPRR/BNSF mainline just on the northern borders of
the Redmond UGB and expanded warehouse and distribution facilities in Prineville.
“In general, companies will respond to the higher fuel prices by expanding their distribution networks to
include additional DCs, but it remains to be seen just how big the impact will be. Some will tweak their
networks by adding one or two DCs or relocating one or two of them in order to economize on freight-
miles and fuel consumption.”
2010 report by ProLogis, a leading global provider of distribution facilities
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 35
E. REGIONAL LARGE-LOT DEMAND
LONG RANGE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
Figure 20 outlines estimated growth in employment projected by the Oregon Employment Department (OED) for
the Central Oregon region. The OED’s most recent projection estimates employment growth by industry over a 10-
year horizon beginning in 2008. For the purposes of this analysis, Johnson Reid applied the State's 10 -year growth
rates to 2010 base year estimates of employment by industry and extrapolated growth through 2030.
FIGURE 20: BASELINE LONG RANGE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
Over the next 20-years the Central Oregon region is expected to add roughly 22,208 new employees according to
State projections. The bulk of projected growth is expected to fall within the Health, Leisure & Hospitality, and
Professional & Business Services sectors. However, State level projections are often demographically driven
methodologies, developed for long range budgetary and government planning purposes. They very rarely reflect
the qualitative economic development goals of local jurisdictions and economic development agencies. For
example, as mentioned above, EDCO and the tri-county region have committed to the broad based recruitment,
retention, and organic expansion of the region's Software/IT industry, which is generally under the Information
NAICS classification. However, this economic development goal is not reflected in the State's forecast of
Information employment. In other words, aspirational goa ls, policies, and dedication of resources have real direct
impacts on the path of economic development likely in a local geography.
More importantly is an inherent disconnect between any trended forecast methodology and the potential demand
for large-lot industrial employers. By nature, large industrial placements are "game -changers", whereas a single
placement can change the economic landscape of a community. The employment impacts are not reliably
"forecastable". Communities are best served by providing a range and supply of suitable options for prospective
recruitments in addition to organic expansions. This is particularly prevalent in today's landscape, where firms,
products and even entire industries shopping Oregon for suitable sites did not even exist a cycle ago. The
Facebook placement in Prineville is a prime example of a firm and industry that did not exist even 10-years ago.
While large lot users may reflect growth of existing industries, they are more often reflective of a regional, national
Base Estimate '10-'30
Industry 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Change AAGR
Natural Resources 1,044 1,075 1,107 1,140 1,174 130 0.6%
Construction 4,093 4,123 4,153 4,183 4,213 120 0.1%
Manufacturing 5,493 5,747 6,013 6,290 6,581 1,088 0.9%
Wholesale Trade 2,238 2,287 2,337 2,388 2,440 202 0.4%
Retail Trade 10,138 10,804 11,514 12,271 13,077 2,939 1.3%
T.W.U.1,605 1,735 1,876 2,027 2,192 587 1.6%
Information 1,437 1,433 1,428 1,424 1,420 (17) -0.1%
Financial Activities 3,741 3,910 4,086 4,270 4,463 722 0.9%
Professional & Business 7,001 7,607 8,266 8,981 9,759 2,758 1.7%
Education & Health 10,099 11,478 13,045 14,826 16,850 6,751 2.6%
Leisure & Hospitality 9,981 10,643 11,349 12,102 12,905 2,924 1.3%
Other Services 2,533 2,687 2,851 3,024 3,209 676 1.2%
Public Administration 11,985 12,742 13,547 14,403 15,313 3,328 1.2%
TOTAL 71,388 76,271 81,571 87,331 93,596 22,208 1.3%
SOURCE: Oregon Employment Department and Johnson Reid, LLC
Year
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 36
or global site selection process, and are competitive in nature. A survey of site selection professionals found that
large firms go through a methodical site selection process for “develop ment-ready” sites and that agencies seek to
maximize quantity and selection of large “development -ready” sites for successful employer recruitment. A
development-ready site, or a “shovel-ready” site, is one in which site improvement can begin within 180 da ys of
purchase and development application. Such sites are served by requisite infrastructure and utilities,
environmental and other constraints are known and documented, and permitting can be fast -tracked for rapid
facility operations. If all these conditions cannot be met in accordance with project time frames, sites will not be
kept on the list for further consideration. The key to the site selection process, therefore, is that it is essential for
candidate sites to be immediately development-ready instead of simply “buildable.” Furthermore, a general lack of
development-ready sites to choose from eliminates a city or region from contention early in the site selection
process. Until sites win development -ready status, they are not truly effective supply for large industrial site
demand as viewed by firms seeking to potentially locate in the region. It is critical to keep in mind that the site
selection process begins as a process of elimination; it only becomes selection after a short list of potential sites
that meet all pertinent criteria has been created.
INDUSTRY PLACEMENT VELOCITY
For the reasons cited previously, a matrix is included, showing recent target industry placements, large and
medium nationwide, in addition to industrial recruitment activity in Oregon4 to demonstrate a snapshot of large-
lot characteristics and the velocity of recruitments handled by Business Oregon.
4 Oregon Business Development , 2010
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 37
FIGURE 21: SELECTED LARGE LOT RECRUITMENTS IN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
YEAR PROJECT LOCATION LOT SIZE BUILDING SIZE COMMENTS
1996 Target Albany, Or 175 acres 1.3 msf
1997 Wal-Mart Hermiston, Or 200 acres 1.3 msf
2002 Dollar-Tree Ridgefield, Wa 75 acres 800,000 sf
2002 Familian (Plumbing)Tri-Cities, Wa 75 acres 500,000 sf
2002 Wal-Mart (Cold Storage)Granview, Wa 100 + acres 900,000 sf
2004 Lowes (certified)Lebanon, Or 204 acres 1.3 msf to 2.2 msf
2004 Olympic (Vanity Fair)Shafter, Ca 100 + acres 900,000 sf
2005 Amy's Kitchen White City 50
2006 October (cold storage)Salem, Or Lost 145 + acres 1 msf
2006 NOAH-PepsiCo Albany 204 acres 2.5 msf
2006 Private Project (Technology)Northern Oregon I-5 100+1 msf
2006 Project GoForth Salem Area 75-100 1 msf
2006 Genentech (certified)Hillsboro 50 range 500,000 sf
2006 Apricus N-Oregon 250 Very large Went to Singapore
2006 Jindo-china Oregon 100
2006 Pacific Ethanol Boardman 137
2007 SolarWorld Hillsboro 75 range 1 msf
2007 NN2 Lost-Cal Hillsboro 150 1.5 msf Optisolar
2007 Crystal Lost Malaysia Millersberg 100 Went to Malaysia
2007 HOT-lost N. Oregon 100
2007 Gold Rush E-Oregon 350 est Very large
2007 Navitas Oregon 150/200 EverGreen-lost
2007 Apricus Northern Oregon 200 2.5 msf REC
2007 Fed Ex Troutdale 78 500,000 sf
2008 Valancia Northern Oregon 100 1 msf +Delayed
2008 Schott I-5 50+200,000 sf, expansion
to 800,000 sf
New Mexico
2009 SEH Vancouver 75 1 msf +- Leasing Space to HP.
2009 Cambridge I-5 50 500,000 sf Plainfield
2009 Facebook (certified)Prineville 118 147,000 sf Room for up to four
datacenters.
2010 Home Depot (certified)Salem 50 to 100 400,000+50 Acres Plus Option
2010 Big Solar Portland/I-5 250 1.4 msf February 2010 Lead
2010 Green Manufacturing Mid-Valley 100 December 09 Lead
Source: Oregon Business Development
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 38
FIGURE 22: MATRIX OF RECENT MAJOR TARGET INDUSTRY PLACEMENTS
SOURCE: IronWolf
It should be noted that Business Oregon’s database reflects only a subset of overall activity in this market, with
many firms making decisions without contacting the agency, or working more directly with regional economic
development agencies such as EDCO.
Over the previous two years Central Oregon has seen a total of 53 major recruitment leads evaluate the region.
The majority of leads ended quickly as the region did not meet the firm's minimum criteria. Most commonly , the
Industry/Activity Company Location Land/Site Size
Renewable Energy
Solar; plant for solar panels and power systems Xtreme Power/Wixom, Michigan 320 acres
Vestas Colorado (3 locations)Brighton= 176 acres
Windsor=75 acres
Pueblo= 800 acres
Wind: plant for concrete tower bases Tindall Newton, KS 144 acres
Solar: facility for R&D and panels Green 2V Rio Rancho, NM 124 acres
Wind: plant for nacelles Siemens Hutchinson, KS 108 acres
Batteries: plant for leaf batteries Nissan Leaf Batteries Smyrna, TN 72 acres
Solar: plant for solar receivers Schott Solar Rio Rancho, NM 80 acres
Aviation/Aerospace
787 fuselage Boeing Charleston, SC 1.2 million sq. ft. (building only)
Parts depot Lockheed Martin Papillion, NE 85,600 sq. ft. (building only)
R & D Lockheed Martin San Diego, CA 158,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Service Cessna Valencia, Spain 152,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Drone production General Atomics Sabre Springs, CA 193,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Helicopter training academy Bell Helicopter Ft. Worth, TX 160,897 sq. ft. (building only)
Helicopter hangar addition Bell Helicopter Amarillo, TX 97,678 sq. ft. (building only)
Software/Information Technology
Software testing Galmont Consulting Lexington, KY 4,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Global software development facility HSBC Burnaby, BC 146,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Company H.Q.Projekt202 Austin, TX 8,500 sq. ft.
Software support Microsoft Austin, TX 10,000 sq. ft
Innovation and technology center Microsoft Reston, VA 63,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Computer lab Microsoft Redmond, WA 57,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Office space Microsoft Bellevue, WA 1.34 million sq. ft. (office lease)
Bioscience & Medicne
Pharmaceutical development facility Analytical BioChemistry Laboratories Columbia, MO 90,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Corporate campus Biogen Idec RTP, NC 176 acres
Fill and finish facility Genentech Hillsboro, OR 75 acres
Insulin manufacturing facility MannKind Danbury, CT 251,875 sq. ft. (building only)
Mammalian cell culture proteins Pfizer County Cork, Ireland 130,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Contract manufacturing Cook Pharmica Bloomington, IN 250,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Data Centers
Data center E bay South Jordan, UT 250,000 sq.ft. (building only)
Data center Oracle West Jordan, UT 200,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Data Center National Security Agency Camp Williams, UT 200 acres
Data Center Cisco Systems Allen, TX 140,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Data Center Apple Maiden, NC 500,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Data Center Target Brooklyn Park, MN 111,800 sq. ft. (building only)
Data Center Equinix El Segundo, CA 177,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Data Center Advanced Data Centers Sacramento, CA 500,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Data Center Facebook Prineville, OR 147,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Data Center Microsoft Quincy, WA 470,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Higher Education
Innovation Center Western Michigan U.Kalamazoo, MI 69,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Aviation programs Western Michigan U.Battle Creek, MI 92,000 sq. ft building and 20 acres
Treyburn Corporate Park North Carolina State U.Raleigh, NC 256 acres
Biomedical campus U of Arizona and A.S.U Phoenix, AZ 28 acres
Campus expansion University of Memphis Memphis, TN 250,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Campus expansion for student housing SMU Dallas, TX Redevelopment of bakery facility
Campus expansion Duke Durham, NC 1.3 million sq. ft. (building only)
Recreational Equipment
Factory store Danner Boots Portland, OR 59,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Paddle craft production Johnson Outdoors Old Town, ME N/A
Custom skis Wagner Custom Skis Telluride, CO N/A
Sports research lab New Balance Boston, MA 3,000 sq. ft. (building only)
Wind: plants in Brighton-blades and nacelles Windsor-blades
Pueblo-towers
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 39
region missed on lack of Interstate highway transportation routes, lack of large acreage parcels, or specific
infrastructure limitations. However, the region did make it to the visitation process in four of the 15 instances it
passed the first criteria round with one, the Facebook placement, actually locating in the region.
FIGURE 23: SUMMARY OF INDUSTRIAL RECRUITMENT LEADS
As noted previously in this report, Central Oregon’s lack of appropriate sites largely precludes it from competing
for many prospective leads at it is unable to meet the minimum criteria specified.
V. ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL
Information gathered from research as well as extensive input from State and regional economic development
professionals were incorporated into an estimation of regional large lot industrial needs.
A. SITE NEED CHARACTERISTICS
Site needs for the targeted large lot industrial users are inherently difficult to assess based on the high level of
uncertainty in industrial recruiting. Site requirements for specific industries are discussed in this section, but there
are a great number of site requirements that are generally common among most major industrial users.
Business Oregon maintains a matrix of site needs for major industry sectors that they are actively recruiting. While
the matrix is not limited to large lot users, the requirements outline prov ide guidance with respect to site
requirements by major industry group. The following table summarizes key site characteristics required and
preferred by several major development types. While key characteristics are often listed as preferred, these may
be required by specific firms or used as screening variables to differentiate competition. The Central Oregon
region expresses a desire to maintain a competitive portfolio of sites, which would imply sites having preferred as
well as required characteristics.
A more generalized summary column is included, showing large lot site requirements. This recognizes that while
one may target specific industries, the nature of large lot demand and firm characteristics is highly variable. The
generalized site requirements summarize key characteristics that are broadly valued by the identified industries.
Total Leads 53
Central Oregon Did not Make Minimum Criteria 37 of 53
Made Minimum Criteria 15 of 53
Got to the Site Visit State 4 of 53
Firm Located in the Region 1 of 53
SOURCE: EDCO and Business Oregon
RECRUITMENT LEADS FOR CENTRAL OREGON
June 2008 -June 2010
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 40
FIGURE 24: INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROFILE MATRIX5
5 Business Oregon and Johnson Reid
Heavy High-Tech Campus Call Center/
General Industrial/General Food Manufacturing Industrial/Warehouse/Business
Site Regional Global Manufacturing Manufacturing Processing Processes Electronic Distribution Services
Physical Site Characteristics
Net Contiguous Developable Area
50-100 acres x x x x x x x x x
101-200 acres x x x x x x x x x x
200+ acres x x x x x x x x x x
Maximum Slope 5%5%5%5%5%5%7%10%5%12%
Infrastructure
Transportation
Auto/Truck Req Req Req Req Req Req Req Req Req Req
Interstate - Miles 10 15 10 10 20 30 15 10 5 NA
Trip Generation - ADT/Acre 65-192 76-106 76-106 42-58 76-106 76-106 76-106 76-106 65-86 144-192
Rail Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref NR NR Pref NR
Marine NA Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref NR NR Pref NR
Airport - Regional Commercial Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref
Max Distance - Miles 30 60 30 60 60 60 30 30 60 60
Airport - International Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref
Distance - Miles 300 100 100 300 300 300 100 100 300 300
Water x x x x x x x x x
Min. Domestic Line Size/inches 8 10 8 8 8 10 10 10 4 4
Min. Fire Line Size/inches 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 10 8
High Pressure Supply Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref Pref NR NR
Flow/GPD 50-75,000 74,300 74,300 36,100 17,000 24,900 65,300 74,300 11,700 4,600
Sanitary Sewer Req Req Req Req Req Req Req Req Req Req
Min. Size/inches 8-10 10 10 8 8 10 10 8 4 4
Natural Gas/Preferred Min./inches 6 6 6 4 6 6 2 2 2
Electricity x x x x x x x x x
Min. Service Demand/kva 30-100 kva 50 100 30 30 30 30 30 10 30
Proximity to Substation Pref Req Req Pref Pref NR Pref Pref NR Pref
Secondary System Dependency Pref Req Req Req NR NR Req
Telecommunications
High Capacity Req Req Req Pref Pref Pref Req Req Pref Req
Route Diversity Pref Req Req NR NR NR Req Pref NR Req
Fiber Optics Req Req Req Pref Pref Pref Req Req Pref Req
Location
Workforce/50 Mile Radius 20,000-50,000 300,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 50,000 50,000 20,000 25,000
50,000
Executive & Workforce Housing Pref
Req Required
Pref Preferred
NR Not Required
NA Not Applicable
Clean Tech Campus
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 41
As outlined in the preceding table, site requirements can be grouped into several broad categories. The
following is a brief summation of the basic categories of site requirements:
PHYSICAL
Size – Large lot demand is defined in the context of this analysis as sites 50-acres or above. Sites
of significantly larger size provide greater flexibility, as they can meet large site needs as well as
providing the ability to be subdivided.
Slope – Industrial development has a very limited capacity to deal with slopes. This is particularly
true in areas such as Central Oregon, in which the geology makes grading costly.
Configuration – Rectangular sites provide for the most efficient layouts. Sites with irregular
configurations need to be larger to accommodate similar levels of development.
INFRASTRUCTURE
TRANSPORTATION
o Auto/Truck
Interstate
Highway
Major Arterial
o Rail
o Marine Port
o Airport
General Aviation
Commercial
International
UTILITIES
o Water
o Sewer
o Natural Gas
o Electricity
o Telecommunications
Major communications capacity
Route diversity
Fiber optics
LOCATION
WORKFORCE
o Locations within acceptable distance of appropriately scaled labor market
o Housing options for workforce and executives
SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS
Availability - Owner willing to sell at market consistent price
Ownership – Willingness to hold, front infrastructure investments
Flexibility – Ability to meet a variety of demands
Site Certification – Not necessary, but criteria should be at least inclusive of the certification
criteria
Funding – Viability of funding necessary infrastructure to support development
Sites designated to meet the regional demand for large lot industrial uses should be able to meet most of
these criteria where practical. While physical and workforce issues cannot be addressed by actions of an
individual jurisdiction, the remaining locational criteria largely involve infrastructure inv estments, which
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 42
can be actively targeted to enhance the supply of competitive sites. Additionally, jurisdictions actively
engaging property owners in discussions about land price, lot configuration, and investments necessary to
make sites usable can provide a context for owners’ readiness to sell their property.
Outside of size and configuration, the following are key characteristics associated with a competitive land
supply for Central Oregon, which should be considered as the criteria under which sites are evaluated to
meet identified needs. This list of criteria reflects input from EDCO.
Availability
The site must be under ownership of an entity that is willing to sell the site at market -appropriate
pricing. Sites controlled by unmotivated or unrealistic owners are of little use for the stated
community economic development objectives.
Infrastructure
Utilities – Municipal water and sanitary sewer, electric power, natural gas and telecom in
capacities needed for specific companies or industries are critical. The ranking and magnitude
needed for each varies from industry to industry. If nearly all utilities noted above are not in
place or proximate to the site, and without some existing unused capacity, most companies will
not consider a community (or that site at least) further. Most private businesses, even large
ones, are not coincidentally experienced developers, and even with experience their timelines
for projects are such that they are unwilling and/or unable to wait while major infrastructure
projects are executed by public sector entities.
Transportation – Most projects, with a few exceptions, have significant transportation and
logistics aspects. It is important to note that the current access approval process in Oregon
(whether on a state highway or not) is broken and a significant barrier to economic development
in general and large lot development specifically. The Transportation Planning Rule (TPR) and
relationship with LCDC approval is specifically creating the greatest problems for land
development in the Central Oregon region.
Workforce
Throughout the tri-county area, the question for larger projects is first and foremost about
quantity of available workers. Bend or the Deschutes County MSA is often the smallest area in
the field of consideration during a site selection process. Quality can also be an issue, but at the
end of the day, communities have little influence on either, at least at the point when companies
come looking. The current unemployment statistics, which indicate an available workforce,
could indeed make Central Oregon attractive to prospective employers if there are available sites
to accommodate them.
Education & Training
Some companies are keenly interested in higher education opportunities both for the overall
workforce and continuing education of their employees. That the Central Oregon region has
been underserved for both higher education and training opportunities is a factor noted by
several large projects in the past as a concern.
Incentives
While Oregon is not a “big player” in the incentives game nationally, the state does have in place
several incentives that favor large, capital intensive projects. Specifically, few areas have the
type of property tax incentives Oregon offers that can exempt these taxes for 3-15 years. Nearly
all Central Oregon industrial areas have access to these incentives through the enterprise zone
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 43
and/or Strategic Investment Program. At the same time, Oregon does not have the type of
payroll or jobs-based incentives available as in other places in the country.
B. GROSS LAND DEMAND
From an economic development perspective, Central Oregon seeks to offer a range of readily developable
sites that are supportive of regional and statewide economic development objectives, as well as
competitive with alternative regions.
The demand for large industrial sites within Central Oregon cannot be derived using typical employment
projections by industry, extrapolating future anticipated growth patterns based on historical patterns.
Establishing and maintaining a competitive large lot industrial inventory is intended to expand upon the
range of potential economic development opportunities that Cen tral Oregon can compete effectively for.
Central Oregon as a region will be competing for large lot recruitments within a broader context that will
likely include Idaho, Washington and Northern California. The following table provides a profile of firm
changes by size of enterprise within this broader area over a one year period.
FIGURE 25: BIRTHS, DEATHS, EXPANSION & CONTRACTION OF FIRMS, 2006-2007
As shown in the table, firms with 500 or more employees represented 14% of total firms in 2006, but 47%
of total employment. Firms over 100 employees represented 19% of firms and 62% of total employment.
While the net change in establishments in these size ranges is significant, the number of births (new firms)
exceeds the net change in establishments by 384%. For firms with 500 or more employees, births exceed
the net change by 554%. Firms primarily become prospective recruitment targets when they are f ormed
or find their existing facilities or business environment inadequate. As a result, the number of births
TOTAL 1-4 5-9 10-19 20-99 100-499 500+
WESTERN UNITED STATES (California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington)
Initial year establishments 1,067,847 469,155 172,870 109,832 112,019 51,354 152,617
Change in establishments 30,002 14,386 2,955 1,882 4,423 3,175 3,181
Percent change in establishments 2.8%3.1%1.7%1.7%3.9%6.2%2.1%
Establishment births 156,065 92,869 16,242 9,816 12,751 6,771 17,616
Establishment deaths 126,063 78,483 13,287 7,934 8,328 3,596 14,435
Establishment expansions 298,061 98,603 52,935 37,671 41,205 17,966 49,681
Establishment contractions 296,885 65,083 64,334 47,564 49,639 20,493 49,772
Percent change in establishments due to births 14.6%19.8%9.4%8.9%11.4%13.2%11.5%
Percent change in establishments due to deaths 11.8%16.7%7.7%7.2%7.4%7.0%9.5%
Initial year employment 18,258,562 970,374 1,124,249 1,406,925 3,444,532 2,756,375 8,556,107
Change in employment 37,174 179,815 31,231 2,741 -43,809 -76,264 -56,540
Percent change in employment 0.2%18.5%2.8%0.2%-1.3%-2.8%-0.7%
Change in employment due to births 1,176,589 162,490 101,728 110,507 234,975 173,062 393,827
Change in employment due to deaths -1,031,368 -133,995 -82,878 -93,033 -192,320 -134,396 -394,746
Change in employment due to expansions 1,918,836 234,651 147,836 154,902 334,050 252,161 795,236
Change in employment due to contractions -2,026,883 -83,331 -135,455 -169,635 -420,514 -367,091 -850,857
Percent change in employment due to births 6.4%16.7%9.0%7.9%6.8%6.3%4.6%
Percent change in employment due to deaths -5.6%-13.8%-7.4%-6.6%-5.6%-4.9%-4.6%
Percent change in employment due to expansions & births 17.0%40.9%22.2%18.9%16.5%15.4%13.9%
Percent change in employment due to contractions & deaths -16.7%-22.4%-19.4%-18.7%-17.8%-18.2%-14.6%
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses
Employment Size of Enterprise
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 44
(which can include new firms as well as firms expanding into a new classification) is a key indicator of the
depth of potential market demand. The following table summarizes a profile of firms by size range in the
Western Unites States in 2008. This shows close to 27,000 firms with 100 or more employees, of which
10,800 are in industries that are historically considered to be industrial oriented. The nature of industrial
space usage is highly variable, and many industries not historically associated with industrial space now
utilize this type of space. An example of this would be industries previously categorized under
information, which would include major employers that have recently located on industrial space such as
Facebook and Google.
FIGURE 26: PROFILE OF FIRMS BY SIZE RANGE AND INDUSTRY, WESTERN UNITED STATES, 2008
A similar profile for Central Oregon shows a total of 70 firms with m ore than 100 employees. This
represents 0.9% of total firms in the area. If the regional profile was consistent with the Western United
States, with 2.2% of firms having 100 employees or more, the region would have a total of 162 firms of
this size. For firms having 500 employees or more, this number would increase the firm total from 7 to 17
in Central Oregon.
WESTERN US (CALIFORNIA, IDAHO, OREGON, WASHINGTON)Total
Industry code description Firms 1-4 5-6 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 500-999 1,000+
Forestry, fishing, hunting, and Agriculture Support 5,315 3,592 698 486 319 134 65 15 3 3
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 1,332 566 216 242 186 60 49 8 3 2
Utilities 1,849 841 284 223 220 124 97 35 13 12
Construction 124,560 78,572 20,929 12,801 8,204 2,571 1,169 237 55 22
Manufacturing 58,383 22,430 10,621 9,214 8,547 3,846 2,609 734 268 114
Wholesale trade 78,309 41,552 14,795 10,505 7,408 2,415 1,221 284 91 38
Retail trade 154,392 68,746 38,164 23,342 14,340 5,642 3,380 736 39 3
Transportation and warehousing 31,667 16,963 5,261 4,004 3,158 1,226 740 185 87 43
Information 27,199 15,027 3,728 3,325 2,696 1,231 750 265 114 63
Finance and insurance 73,237 43,916 13,712 8,657 4,517 1,284 728 236 134 53
Real estate and rental and leasing 66,337 48,318 9,997 4,989 2,074 605 270 60 17 7
Professional, scientific, and technical services 148,273 103,085 21,137 12,653 7,382 2,316 1,199 303 107 91
Management of companies and enterprises 6,786 2,380 1,047 1,018 1,082 530 432 167 83 47
Administrative and Support and Waste Mang and Remediation Srvs 60,140 33,713 9,437 6,532 5,285 2,419 1,869 578 204 103
Educational services 15,693 7,259 2,690 2,379 2,044 716 418 101 40 46
Health care and social assistance 132,605 68,873 29,995 17,375 10,057 3,321 2,094 417 199 274
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 25,090 16,820 2,823 1,991 1,874 886 494 120 47 35
Accommodation and food services 106,050 34,423 19,804 23,497 21,531 5,135 1,371 185 76 28
Other services (except public administration)99,577 61,316 20,480 10,516 5,422 1,246 475 73 35 14
TOTAL FOR ALL SECTORS 1,219,028 670,528 225,897 153,763 106,351 35,707 19,430 4,739 1,615 998
PERCENT OF TOTAL 55.0%18.5%12.6%8.7%2.9%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.1%
TOTA FOR INDUSTRIAL-ORIENTED SECTORS 354,908 194,071 61,327 43,279 32,822 12,601 7,705 2,053 718 332
INDUSTRIAL-ORIENTED PERCENT OF TOTAL 54.7%17.3%12.2%9.2%3.6%2.2%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Firms by Size Range
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 45
FIGURE 27: PROFILE OF FIRMS BY SIZE RANGE AND INDUSTRY, CENTRAL OREGON, 2008
Firms sized at 500 employees or larger can be a general proxy for large lot industrial site demand. The
Central Oregon region currently accounts for 0.27% of firms of 500 employees or more in the Western
United States. The ratio of large firms in Central Oregon relative to the overall number of fir ms (0.09%) is
less than half the ratio in the broader Western United States (0.21%). Using the current profile of firms by
size in the Western United States and Central Oregon, combined with birth and expansion patt erns
summarized in Figure 25, Johnson Reid can generate a model of annual large firm location activity in the
region.
FIGURE 28: ESTIMATED ANNUAL LARGE FIRM LOCATION ACTIVITY
CENTRAL OREGON (CROOK, DESCHUTES & JEFFERSON COUNTIES)Total
Industry code description Firms 1-4 5-6 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 500-999 1,000+
Forestry, fishing, hunting, and Agriculture Support 54 43 7 1 1 2 0 0 0 0
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 11 6 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0
Utilities 38 23 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0
Construction 1,398 1,046 194 101 44 10 3 0 0 0
Manufacturing 366 173 77 48 35 18 11 2 2 0
Wholesale trade 310 184 58 42 21 5 0 0 0 0
Retail trade 984 477 238 131 90 34 10 4 0 0
Transportation and warehousing 161 103 26 14 10 3 4 0 1 0
Information 143 82 24 19 7 7 2 1 1 0
Finance and insurance 412 256 94 40 17 3 2 0 0 0
Real estate and rental and leasing 447 355 51 28 11 0 2 0 0 0
Professional, scientific, and technical services 722 550 89 51 31 0 1 0 0 0
Management of companies and enterprises 29 13 7 2 4 3 0 0 0 0
Administrative and Support and Waste Mang and Remediation Srvs 371 238 59 32 33 7 2 0 0 0
Educational services 74 37 13 11 11 2 0 0 0 0
Health care and social assistance 614 322 128 85 43 24 9 2 0 1
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 128 75 21 9 16 3 3 0 1 0
Accommodation and food services 593 184 116 165 105 17 3 2 1 0
Other services (except public administration)515 313 127 52 19 4 0 0 0 0
TOTAL FOR ALL SECTORS 7,370 4,480 1,336 836 504 144 52 11 6 1
PERCENT OF TOTAL 60.8%18.1%11.3%6.8%2.0%0.7%0.1%0.1%0.0%
TOTAL FOR INDUSTRIAL-ORIENTED SECTORS 2,644 1,767 419 241 147 45 20 2 3 0
INDUSTRIAL-ORIENTED PERCENT OF TOTAL 66.8%15.8%9.1%5.6%1.7%0.8%0.1%0.1%0.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Firms by Size Range
Central Western
Oregon US
Total Firms 7,370 1,219,028
Firms - 500-999 Employees 6 1,615
% of Total 0.08%0.13%
Share of Western US 0.37%100.00%
Firms - 1,000+ Employees 1 998
% of Total 0.01%0.08%
Share of Western US 0.10%100.00%
Firms - 500+ Employees 7 2,613
% of Total 0.09%0.21%
Share of Western US 0.27%100.00%
PROJECTED ACTIVITY
Estimated Annual Birth Rate 1/11.5%11.5%
Expansion Annual Rate 1/32.6%32.6%
Annual Births 1 302
Annual Expansions 2 851
Estimated Annual Activity 3 1,152
1/ Assumes patterns consistent with Western US data summarized in Figure 21.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 46
Assuming Central Oregon retains its current mix of firms, one could expect average annual large firm
activity of 3 location decisions per year, or 15 over a five year horizon. Not all of these will require new
sites, as many will be able to expand at existing locations or locate in vacant or underut ilized existing
facilities. If Central Oregon’s share of large employers mirrored its share of overall employment, the level
of annual estimated activity would increase to 7 firms. It should be noted that the demand for large lot
industrial land is also a function of supply. In other words, if no sites are available to ac commodate these
users the region will get none of these users. What is modeled is a prospective demand, assuming that a
competitive inventory is available and maintained, allowing the region to capture a “fair share” of market
activity.
Economic recruitment benefits from some degree of market choice. Firms evaluating prospective
locations are a more likely to consider Central Oregon if multiple appropriate sites can be seen in a single
trip. As outlined in the vision statement, the region is hoping to establish and maintain a “competitive
portfolio” of large lot industrial sites. This would include an inventory of readily available and appropriate
sites consistent with baseline criteria, allowing the region to clear the initial site selection screenin g. To
the extent that multiple prospective sites are available in the region, Central Oregon’s competitive
position would be enhanced as site selectors prefer to have multiple options before physically visiting an
area such as Central Oregon.
Business Oregon is mandated by ORS 197.717 (2) to “provide a local government with state and national
trend” information to assist in compliance with ORS 197.712 (2)(a).” The department has reviewed the
Central Oregon area, and made the following recommendations:
Given its current size and expected growth, it is not unreasonable to assume that the
region being examined as part of the current Central Oregon Large Lot Economic
Opportunity Analysis should have a mix of large lot sizes for potential employers and site
selectors to choose from. Such a mix would have at least multiple ready sites in the 200,
100 and 50-acre plus acreage ranges in order to meet expected 20 year land supply
needs.
Working with EDCO and Business Oregon, the following matrix of large-lot site needs has been developed.
FIGURE 29: RECOMMENDED COMPETITIVE LARGE LOT INDUSTRIAL INVENTORY
50-100 ACRES 100-200 ACRES 200+ ACRES TOTAL
SHORT TERM
Number of Sites 3 2 1 6
Jurisdictions 3 2 1
LONG TERM
Number of Sites 10 5 2 17
Jurisdictions 5 3 2
The preceding table summarizes what has been determined to be a regionally and nationally competitive
portfolio of large industrial lots. A readily available and developable inventory of six large sites in at least
three separate jurisdictions will provide for choice to prospective industries or site selectors. While the
table presents both a short term and long term inventory, the short term inventory is what is relevant
from an economic development perspective. The longer term in ventory’s value would be in identifying
sites that can replace the short term inventory if absorbed or if market conditions and needs shift. Based
on the projected level of demand for these sites, replenishment of the inventory will likely be needed on a
regular basis.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 47
Maintaining an appropriate available lot supply that is readily developable is a key priority for the region,
and strongly affirmed in the community vision. Projecting the demand for industrial land in this size range
is inherently highly speculative, as it is a thinly traded and highly competitive sector. In other words, with
fewer transactions and multiple areas competing for these transactions, there is an unusually high degree
of uncertainty in any forecast. The degree of uncertainty can be offset by emphasizing short term ready
supply, with a mechanism to replace supply in a timely manner when needed. While this may be
achieved during a periodic review, there should also be provisions for more rapid response if the market
supports it.
In the professional opinion of the economic development professionals contributing to this analysis, a
competitive portfolio of industrial sites would include a collection of large industrial parcels in some
selected communities, and a major, centrally located large-scale development near the region’s
geographic and workforce center, and where key infrastructure is in place and has excess capacity. This
would be optimally located on the north end of Bend, but infrastructure challenges will make this choice
problematic for at least the short-term. The next most optimal location is on the southern end of
Redmond, east of Highway 97. The area has few neighbors, possible secondary transport access and most
of the municipal and franchise utilities with excess capacity.
Another three large lot parcels available throughout the region is also recommended as part of a
competitive portfolio. These sites would be 100 to 200 acres in size, and located in three distinct
jurisdictions. Recommended jurisdictions include Bend, Prineville and La Pine. The City of Madras has
available land within its current UGB for a large lot industrial user.
What is important from an economic development perspective is maintaining an inventory of
appropriately sized and located lots available to the market in any given period. From a market
perspective, sites need to be readily developable with infrastructure in place or readily available,
controlled by a willing seller and appropriately priced. While long term (20 - year) needs are delineated,
the critical issue is to establish and maintain the short-term inventory. Longer term planning can allow for
sites to progress towards being available to meet short-term demands in future periods. As the
projection of needs for large lot industrial needs is unusually speculative, a focus on short -term needs is
probably more prudent, with mechanisms established to allow for maintenance of an adequate inventory
in the region. In addition, the nature of industrial demand is likely to change over a twenty year period,
and the nature of a regionally and nationally competitive portfolio of sites would be expected to change
commensurately. Reflecting this, a process to allow for ongoing updating and refinement of the identified
need for these types of sites should be established.
The following are additional factors that should be considered in establishing and maintaining a
competitive supply:
It should be noted that while Johnson Reid is evaluating large lot site needs as independent of
the need for smaller sites, the targeted employers are often “game changers”, which will
generate a range of associated site needs within the region for suppliers and support businesses.
While likely smaller in scale, the ability of the region to serve associated industrial growth is seen
as critical.
Land banking is a relatively common pattern in large lot industrial land use. Firms often seek
sites that are well in excess of their immediate needs, bu t capable of supporting later expansion
of their operations. While land is being “banked” by an employer is not developed, this
sequestered land is not available to the market and subsequently of limited use in economic
development efforts. In effect, banked land should be treated as though it were held by an
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 48
unwilling/uncooperative seller, as per earlier discussions in this report. While it may serve longer
term needs, it should not be counted towards meeting short term needs.
The ability to cost effectively serve sites with adequate infrastructure should be a key
determinant in their usefulness for economic development. Industrial land is characterized by
relatively low values per square foot, providing limited ability to be burdened with off -site
infrastructure costs. In addition, even when fiscally viable, infrastructure provision may only be
available in a time frame that is inadequate to meet identified needs. Certain industrial users can
have significant offsite impacts associated with their operations. These operational externalities
may make cause conflicts with neighboring uses, limiting the appropriate locational options for
these types of firms.
While the research indicates a range of large lot site sizes and characteristics are needed w ithin
Central Oregon, a degree of flexibility should be maintained, recognizing the imprecision
inherent in twenty year forecasts. A property that would allow for a range of partitioning options
for large lot industrial would be considered to be highly desirable. As an example, a 400 acre site
that can be subdivided into parcels as small as 50 acres would have the ability to accommodate
either a very large user, or a series of smaller users. This would provide more flexibility in terms
of potential configurations than two 100 acre sites and four 50 acre sites.
Maintaining a competitive inventory of sites in the region will require regular replacement of sites as
consumed, with modifications made to determinations of appropriate inventory based on avail able
information and periodic reviews. Again, particular emphasis should be placed on the short -term
immediately available inventory, which is what is most critical in economic development efforts.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 49
APPENDIX A: LETTERS FROM ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
PROFESSIONALS
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 59
APPENDIX B: EXAMPLES OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS PROACTIVELY
PLANNING FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 60
INDUSTRY FOCUS: DATA CENTERS
Community: Quincy, Washington (Grant County)
Population: 2000: 5,044 | 2010: 6,750 | % Change: +33.8%
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites absorbed 1990-2000: 0
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites absorbed in past decade: 5
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites now available: 6
Key Industry Site Location Factors:
Proximity to large capacity, low cost power
Access to municipal water and sewer (large capacity)
Mission critical telecom infrastructure (speed and capacity)
Large acreage industrial sites (with proximity to utilities)
Climate conducive for lower cost cooling
Meaningful incentives, tax climate
Economic Outcomes
In 2004, the rural town of Quincy, WA was essentially 100% agriculturally based economy in a county with
some of Washington’s highest chronic unemployment rates. The community had no technology
companies operating there and, as a result, no local technology jobs. Poverty rates also ranked among
the highest in the state.
A key asset the community did have that aligned well for the data center industry was t he fact that it had
over 500 megawatts of stranded electric power capacity resulting from closure of several foundries within
Grant County. Rates set by the local PUC were also very attractive for large users – among the lowest in
the country. The community and county overall had numerous large industrial sites that could
accommodate significant projects such as Microsoft’s 1.5 million square foot data center facility.
Today, there has been an 8 percentage point improvement in the unemployment rate and six major
technology companies (Yahoo!, Microsoft, Dell, Intuit, T-Mobile & Ask.com) have a presence in Quincy.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 61
While critics (most of which are outside community) make arguments that the jobs produced for the
electric power used is a poor economic development tradeoff, the reality is that these centers would be
built somewhere to accommodate market demand for mobile devices, online computing capacity and
Internet-based software and professional services. The community, via its local and professional
economic development organizations, had tried to attract other industries with little success. The data
center industry has brought sustained economic activity that is benefiting most residents.
Other economic impacts in Quincy and Grant County, WA include:
$2.9+ billion in facility construction and IT infrastructure investment
275 average construction jobs since 2004 (peaks exceeding 600)
200 full time direct hire positions with technology companies
250 full time contract employees for facility maintenance (ongoing)
Capital investments alone from data center development have added considerably to the loca l property
tax base, which supports local government, schools and special districts.
Of importance was the fact that Washington’s land use system was able to accommodate six new large
acreage industrial users in a very concentrated timeframe. Oregon’s current land use law would never
allow a community of 6,000 residents to have such an inventory, especially given a historical lack of
demand for such development property. Nonetheless, the availability of this inventory was integral in the
area attracting major new employment concentrations.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 62
INDUSTRY FOCUS: HIGH TECHNOLOGY
Community: Hillsboro, Oregon (Washington County)
Population: 2000: 70,187 | 2010: 91,611 | % Change: +30.5%
Industry Target: High Technology
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites absorbed 2000-2010: 6
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites now available: 5
Key Industry Site Location Factors:
Proximity to large power capacity at low cost
Access to municipal water and sewer (large capacity)
Large acreage industrial sites (with proximity to utilities)
Proximity to technical, scientific talent (existing critical mass & higher education)
Meaningful incentives, tax climate
Economic Outcomes
Home to Intel, Hillsboro has been planning for and working toward growth of its high technology
employment base for more than 25 years. Utilizing a large and renewable resource from its Coast Range
watershed, Hillsboro offers the semiconductor, bioscience and renewable energy equipment
manufacturing industry a valuable resource for process water. Additionally, the community is
strategically located to tap significant electric power transmission capacity in the Portland metro area,
which is also another common thread in high technology manufacturing.
Intel opened its first Hillsboro facility, Hawthorn Farm in 1979. This campus was followed by the opening
of the Jones Farm location near the airport in 1982 and the Ronler Acres location in 1994. The Ronler
Acres development was the result of a substantial effort by the City to assemble a site with multiple
ownerships to provide for a large lot industrial opportunity. Along with several smaller campuses, Intel
Oregon had approximately 15,500 employees, making it the largest Intel site and the largest private
employer in Oregon.
Intel is directly or indirectly responsible for more than 100 spin-off high technology companies and has
played a leading role in attracting other national and international high technology manufacturers to the
Hillsboro area (TOK America, Tokai Carbon, Lattice Semiconductor, FEI Company, Sun Microsystems,
Epson, etc.).
Significant capital investments in infrastructure and physical plant characterize these high technology
companies. For these reasons, large, well-served industrial sites are required. Recent examples include
pharmaceutical giant Genentech (75 acres), Solar World (93 acres), and TriQuint (32 acres). In 2007,
SolarWorld AG acquired the Komatsu silicon wafer production facility in Hillsboro. The Komatsu site is
approximately 93 acres total, and included 480,000 sf manufacturing and approximately 60 acres of
excess land for additional fabs or support buildings. SolarWorld has since built an additional 500,000 sf
module manufacturing facility on the site. TriQuint Semiconductors has a 32-acre corporate campus in
Hillsboro, which manufactures semi-conductors (4” to 6” wafers) and offers integrated technologies for
wireless and base station communications applications. Complete engineering design, manufacturing,
testing, research and development are included at this facility. TriQuint has completed thee expansions at
their Hillsboro HQ since 2006.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 63
Hillsboro has continued to plan for future industrial development of its high technology cluster. The City
has strategically focused industrial development efforts in the northern section of the City and is
supporting that decision through zoning, industrial infrastructure, and transportation access. Despite
having approximately 850 additional buildable acres within the City’s North Industrial Area (Shute,
Evergreen, and Helvetia Industrial Areas), the sites have been hampered by multiple ownership patterns,
wetlands and natural resource issues, and lack of infrastructure.
The City has completed a strategy intended to prepare approximately 700 acres of vacant land in the
North Industrial area for development. The strategy addresses the key challenges to developmen t in this
area including infrastructure concept design and funding; mitigation of wetlands and environmentally
sensitive lands; and land assembly (with the goal of providing a 100 acre site that is truly “shovel ready”).
The city also realizes that high quality and reliable infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, electricity) is
necessary. Millions of dollars are being invested, or are programmed for investment by local utility
suppliers in phases over the next 10 years to accommodate development of these key industrial lands.
While Hillsboro is one of the best positioned communities from an industrial land perspective, only two or
three other options exist for large lot users in within cities in the greater Portland area, a metro with
nearly 2 million residents.
That Hillsboro is preparing for the future with an inventory of large-lot industrial land positions it for
future success. It is hard to imagine how the community could accommodate additional large
technology-based companies (either through recruitment or from organic growth of existing businesses)
without such an inventory.
FEI
Intel
Ronler Acres
Campus
TriQuint
Semiconductor
Genentech
Intel
James
Farm
Campus
SolarWorld
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 64
Community: Austin, TX (Austin County)
Population: 2000: 656,562 | 2010: 790,390 | % Change: +20.4%
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites absorbed 2000-2010: xxx
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites now available: 11
Key Industry Site Location Factors:
Proximity to large power capacity at low cost
Access to municipal water and sewer (large capacity)
Large acreage industrial sites (with proximity to utilities)
Proximity to technical, scientific talent (existing critical mass & higher education)
Meaningful incentives, tax climate
Economic Outcomes
Austin is considered to be a major national center for high technology development and manufacturing.
Among its largest employers are Dell, Freescale Semiconductor, IBM, Apple, Advanced Micro Devices,
Silicon Labs, Hewlett-Packard, Google, AMD, Applied Materials, Cirrus Logic, Cisco Systems, eBay/PayPal,
Bioware, Intel, Samsung, Silicon Laboratories, Oracle a nd Rackspace.
The proliferation of technology companies has led to the region's nickname, "the Silicon Hills", and
spurred development that has greatly expanded the city. Austin is also emerging as a hub for
pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies; about 85 companies in the bioscience industry are based
in Austin.
While the presence of some of the companies noted occurs in more intensive developments (high rise
buildings in a downtown location), the majority of technology employers in the Austin area have
considerable space for their operations.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 65
INDUSTRY FOCUS: WAREHOUSE & DISTRIBUTION
Community: Hermiston, Oregon
Population: 2000: 13,154| 2010: 16,795 | % Change: +27.7%
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites now available: 8
Hermiston is a progressive, growth-oriented urban center for an area based economically on distribution
warehousing, agriculture, food processing, utilities and other light industry. Centrally located, Hermiston
has become a transportation center accessed by Interstate Highways I-84 (east to west) and I-82 (north
and south) as well as rail and river transportation systems. As well as large properties up to and including
a 300-acre site that is subdividable with railroad spur frontage. The City will work with developers of
industrial and commercial business that create job opportunities for local citizens to assist with location of
infrastructure to appropriate sites. The Port of Umatilla has helped in the development of industrial parks
in the area, and has recently attracted a newAmazon facility on their nearby McNary property.
Key Industry Site Location Factors:
Clean water
Economical power
Transportation access (Interstate and Columbia River)
Advanced communications
Room to grow
Economic Outcomes
The City of Hermiston strong locational attributes and readily available industrial land supply has
supported growth in agricultural processing, utilities and distribution/warehousing. Major employers
include:
Wal-Mart Distribution Center – 850 employees
Lamb Weston – 700 employees
Hermiston Foods (NORPAC) - 500 employees
Marlette Homes – 450 employees
Union Pacific Railroad - (315 employees)
Good Shepherd Health Care System - (358 employees)
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 66
Community: Morrow County, Oregon
Population: 2000: 10,995 | 2010: 11,175 | % Change: +1.6%
Number of 50+ acre industrial sites now available: 2,500 subdividable
acres
The Port of Morrow has led economic development efforts within Morrow
County. The Port serves the industrial community by continually
developing its three industrial parks, and offers assistance with financial
services. Connections to the local labor market are also provided. The Port
offers industrial building sites from 1 to 2,000 acres in size as an economical
alternative to metropolitan areas.
Key Industry Site Location Factors:
Clean water
Economical power
Transportation access (Interstate and Columbia River)
Advanced communications
Room to grow
Economic Outcomes
Building on its reputation as a prominent food processing center, the Port is also home to fiber and seed
processing industries, lumber processing and transportation facilities. Port tenants include:
McGinn Brothers Trucking
Morrow Cold Storage
Devin Oil
Oregon Hay Company
Oregon Potato
Pacific Rock Products
Portview Ranches
Rivercrest Farms, Inc.
Tidewater Terminal Services
Vanco
Watts Brothers Re-Pack Facility
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 67
Community: Reno, Nevada (Washoe County)
Population: 2000: 180,480 | 2010: 225,221 | % Change: +24.8%
The greater Reno, NV area has grown over the past two decades into a significant
regional distribution center for the West Coast. Its geographic location provides
optimal service to a six to nine-state area, but most strategically to California – the
most populous and largest state economy in the United States. Warehouse and
distribution is a major industry and source of employment in the Reno-Sparks area, comprising nearly 13%
of all jobs. The area has established a large Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) of nearly 7,500 acres and many
large-scale distribution centers have a presence in the Reno-
Sparks area including:
PetSmart (990,000 sf)
MEPT USA (700,000 sf)
Kmart
JCPenney
Toys R Us (300,000 sf)
Barnes & Noble (642,000)
Husqvarna
US Ordinance
Patagonia (171,000 sf)
Walmart (890,000 sf)
Urban Trends (clothing) – 430,000 sf
Sherwin-Williams
Starbucks (160,000 sf)
Snap-on Tools (120,000 sf)
Several of the large scale distribution centers have located in
the Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center (TRIC), a 110,000 acre
industrial park is among the largest in the nation. Since 2000, TRIC has attracted 83 companies and
construction of nearly five million square feet of warehouse and industrial buildings. The park also
markets that it has 900 megawatts of power available for
companies. The development is well served with rail and
highway access, but prior to its conception, the rural area
east of Reno had no historical industrial development –
giving credence to the “build it and they will come”
strategy employed more famously at the 7,000 acre
Research Triangle in North Carolina.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 68
Community: Salt Lake City, Utah (Salt Lake County)
Population: 2000: 898,387 | 2010: ,029,655 | % Change: +14.6%
Key Industry Site Location Factors:
Strategic geographic location for target metropolitan markets
Access to multiple interstate and rail transportation systems
Availability of low cost, large acreage land
Meaningful incentives, tax climate
The Salt Lake City, UT area is geographically positioned to serve an eleven -state area in the Western U.S.
with one day truck service – making it a hub for the nation’s distribution industry. Key factors supporting
Utah’s status as a distribution destination include an extensive freeway system with more than 43,155
miles of highways and roads; a major rail system with more than 1,400 miles of railroad track stretching
throughout the state; an international airport handling over 550 million pounds of air cargo and air freight
annually. Salt Lake City is also a Customs Port of Entry, serving as a full-service port city. Utah’s low
operating costs and available labor force make Utah an attractive location for the distribution industry.
Over 1,500 trucking companies have a presence in the state.
A long list of companies have large scale distribution operations in the greater Salt Lake City area,
including:
The Hershey Company (chocolate food
products) – 600,000 sf warehouse
Overstock.com (consumer products) -
950,000 sf warehouse
Sephora USA (beauty products) - 320,000
sf warehouse
U.S Foodservice (wholesale food products)
– 265,000 sf warehouse
Huish Detergents (private label
detergents) – 200,000 sf warehouse
Icon Health & Fitness (exercise equipment
mfg. & distribution) – 300,000 sf facility
Lifetime Products (sports equipment mfg.
& distribution) - 2.6 million sf complex
Nestle USA (packaged frozen foods)
Merit Medical Systems (medical devices,
supplies)
Nu Skin Enterprises (beauty products) –
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 69
est. 400,000 sf warehouse
RC Wiley Home Furnishings (furniture manufacture and distribution) 860,000 sf warehouse
ICU Medical (medical devices and supplies) – 450,000 sf facility (140,000 sf distribution)
Walmart (large scale retailer)
Easton (sporting goods) – 140,000 sf distribution
Salt Lake City and surrounding communities have planned for growth of this industry, which has seen
considerable expansion in the past two decades. Nearly all of the distribution centers noted above
require large scale industrial parcels for initial buildings and future growth.
DESCHUTES COUNTY | CENTRAL OREGON REGIONAL LARGE-LOT EOA PAGE 70
APPENDIX C: CORRESPONDENCES RESPONDING TO REGIONAL
ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS
534 SW Third Avenue, Suite 300 • Portland, OR 97204 • (503) 497-1000 • fax (503) 223-0073 • www.friends.org
Southern Oregon Office • PO Box 2442 • Grants Pass, OR 97528 • (541) 474-1155 • fax (541) 474-9389
Willamette Valley Office • 220 East 11th Avenue, Suite 5 • Eugene, OR 97401 • (541) 520-3763 • fax (503) 575-2416
Central Oregon Office • 115 NW Oregon Ave #21 • Bend, OR 97701 • (541) 719-8221 • fax (866) 394-3089
Celebrating Thirty-five Years of Innovation
May 17, 2010
Nick Lelack
Deschutes County Development Department
1300 NW Wall Street
Bend, OR 97701
Re: Central Oregon REOA
Dear Nick,
I am writing today to provide comments on behalf of 1000 Friends of Oregon on the most recent draft
of the REOA. As I mentioned at the end our last meeting, we support the basic principle behind the
REOA effort: cooperative efforts on land use decisions in order to improve Central Oregon’s
economic prospects.
Our primary concern with the current draft is that it not only fails to comply with the land use law, but
it is inconsistent with important policies behind those laws; policies that are sound principles of good
governance. Our concerns center around Goals 9 (Economic Development) and 14 (Urbanization).
Together, these Goals require cities to examine larger economic opportunities in light of community
character, strengths, weaknesses, geographical and natural assets, market opportunities, labor force,
infrastructure, and other qualities. Regional coordination is required, and regional planning is
encouraged. The principle behind Goal 9 is that the EOA provides the basis to determine the
economic opportunities that would be most effective to pursue. In other words, Goal 9 requires a
region to take a realistic look at itself in the larger economic context, to determine what it needs to do
to be economically successful. This is a sound principle.
Specifically, according to Goal 9 an EOA should look at
inventories of areas suitable for increased economic growth and activity after taking
into consideration the health of the current economic base; materials and energy
availability and cost; labor market factors; educational and technical training
programs; availability of key public facilities; necessary support facilities; current
market forces; location relative to markets; availability of renewable and non-
renewable resources; availability of land; and pollution control requirements.
OAR 660-015-0000(9).
Central Oregon Office • 115 NW Oregon Ave #21 • Bend, OR 97701 •
(541) 719-8221 • fax (866) 394-3089
Page 2
With this factual basis under Goal 9, Goal 14 directs a jurisdiction to determine what capacity is
needed to accommodate that growth. The capacity need should grow out of the facts; it might be in
the form of new land, or it might be using existing land differently or more efficiently, or it might be
using existing vacant buildings, or any combination of those options. Or, the “capacity” needed
might be in the form of better education of citizens, or improvements to key infrastructure such as
rail. For example, if the goal is to bring in high tech and bioscience, different capacity and
infrastructure is needed than for mobile home manufacturing or server farms like the Facebook
installation. Looking at just one industry sector, every solar-related business that has located in
Oregon has done so inside existing urban growth boundaries, and in some instances (such as Solar
World in Hillsboro), using existing buildings as well.
Unfortunately, this Draft EOA fails to truly address these basic principles. Although it includes many
critical facts, such as the strengths and weaknesses of various areas, those facts are not actually used
to analyze the potential they create. The strengths and weaknesses are not considered in light of the
larger market forces; they are merely recited. Further, potentially critical distinctions are not made,
such as the difference in the percentage of people with college degrees in Bend v. Madras, and what
difference that might make in the kinds of businesses that choose one town over the other, and how
that might influence the location of a large lot. There is no analysis of whether any of the strengths
and weaknesses would actually cause any large employer to locate in Central Oregon. And, there is
no analysis of the needs those businesses would have. For example, some large employers, such as
information technology businesses or biotech, may house many more employees per acre with less
infrastructure than server farms such as Facebook, which required over 100 acres and most of the
available electric and water capacity for the city of Prineville for only 35 permanent employees. In
short, without an analysis of the likely needs, this REOA is simply incomplete.
Importantly, there is no analysis of other efforts necessary to attract new employers or grow jobs at
existing employers, such as course offerings at the local university, or better transit for potential
employees. Instead, the REOA creates an artificially limited scope by proclaiming the community
goal to be
To build a strong and thriving regional economy by establishing and actively
maintaining a competitive portfolio of large lot employment sites…
There is little support in the region’s comprehensive plans that there is truly a goal of attracting the
kinds of employers that require large lots when statements about large employers are read in context.
By placing the assumption that large lot employers create a strong and thriving economy in the
“vision statement” the document tries to avoid the task of making the case that employers that require
large lots would actually improve the local economy. The document simply assumes that this is true.
Actually, research shows that the opposite is true. The vast majority of job growth comes from
existing small businesses.
Central Oregon Office • 115 NW Oregon Ave #21 • Bend, OR 97701 •
(541) 719-8221 • fax (866) 394-3089
Page 3
When the REOA analyzes how many lots and acres are necessary it considers only one statistic: that
regionally we have a smaller percentage of large industries than is common in the western U.S.,
which it explains includes Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and California. This analysis fails to account
for the small size of Central Oregon cities compared with places like Seattle, Portland, the San
Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Boise, all of which were included in the western regional
statistic. It is not obvious that small cities under 100,000 will attract as large a percentage of
companies with more than 500 employees as large cities with over a million people in the region. In
fact, common sense would suggest the exact opposite result. Smaller towns would be expected to
have smaller businesses. The analysis of how many large lots are required does not consider any
other factors.
Even assuming that Central Oregon could attract as many employers of over 500 people as Portland,
there is another analytical error in this reasoning. Most of the cities in the REOA analysis area have
already expanded their UGBs to account for their anticipated population growth over the next 20
years. (Bend will likely have that process complete in the next two years.) As a result, if this REOA
is going to justify bringing in more land than will be needed in 20 years under normal conditions, it
has to show why employment will grow faster than population. There is no analysis in the REOA that
supports this conclusion. The analysis showing that central Oregon has a smaller percentage of large
employers than the western U.S. in general actually supports the conclusion that the local trend is for
smaller employers. It doesn’t provide a basis for a reasonable expectation of extraordinary economic
growth.
Central Oregon has many attributes that could attract new businesses and cause existing ones to stay
and grow. The region is very desirable to the “creative class” of young people looking for
outstanding recreational opportunities. The region has a well developed economic development
community and will soon have a university. While the REOA lists some of these facts, none of them
is actually used in an analysis of the kinds of companies that may stay and grow or locate in central
Oregon, or the type of capacity, infrastructure, and other elements those companies might need. A
potentially valuable way to approach this question would be to look at other regions that have
accomplished the economic growth this REOA hopes for. What assets did they have? What
strategies did they use to make the most of those assets? Do we have similar conditions here? If not,
could we create them?
The REOA appears to assume that large, established employers in traded sector industries are the
primary drivers of job creation, and that cities need to focus their efforts on attracting these businesses
away from other areas. Assumed growth in this segment of the economy appears to be the basis of
the REOA recommendation to set aside large tracts of land to serve these employment needs, above
and beyond the need established by the employment forecast. However, research indicates that small,
start-up companies are the true creators of overall job growth, and that large, established firms shed
more jobs via layoffs and closures than they create via new hiring.
Central Oregon Office • 115 NW Oregon Ave #21 • Bend, OR 97701 •
(541) 719-8221 • fax (866) 394-3089
Page 4
Economic development literature that I have located generally recommends nurturing the strengths or
assets that already exist in an area, rather than attempting to fundamentally change the employment
base. For example, the International Economic Development Council’s guidance on business
retention and expansion explains that “real job growth over time comes from local business
expansion.” 1 Research since the 1970s shows that most new jobs come from the growth of small
businesses that already exist in the community.2 In light of this research, the new concept of
“Economic Gardening” is beginning to gain significant popularity in economic development circles:
regions should establish programs to nurture existing, growing businesses. Littleton, Colorado is one
example. It has added 15,000 jobs to a town of 40,000 since 1987. Its history can be found at
http://www.littletongov.org/bia/economicgardening/.
These trends apply both locally and nationally, and in both good and bad economic conditions. This
table from the Kauffman Foundation report titled “The Importance of Startups in Job Creation and
Job Destruction” shows that for all but seven years from 1977 to 2005, existing firms suffered net job
losses, while smaller start-ups grew jobs:
1 See http://www.iedconline.org/?p=Guide_BRE.
2 See Richard Greene, “Job Growth in Private Industry,” Monthly Labor Review, September 1982, critiquing the work of
David Birch the MIT researcher who was first able to demonstrate statistically that job growth comes from small existing
firms, not from importinglarge external firms. Additionally, the article compares Birch’s work with other more recent
studies attempting to replicate his work with other data.
Central Oregon Office • 115 NW Oregon Ave #21 • Bend, OR 97701 •
(541) 719-8221 • fax (866) 394-3089
Page 5
In addition, the larger a firm is, the more likely it is to shed more jobs than it creates. The following
table is taken from the draft REOA and covers our four-state region:
Comparing the "Change in Employment" rows shows that the smallest firms gained 18% during
2006-2007, stepping down from there to firms over twenty employees, which had a net loss of jobs.
Note that existing 1-4 employee firms gained 234,651 jobs due to expansion, yet lost only 83,331 due
to contractions. Compare this to the hundreds of thousands of jobs that were lost to contraction in
firms over ten people in size, beyond those gained due to expansion, even during the favorable
economic conditions of 2006 and 2007.
Given this research, and the fact that the REOA acknowledges that the local trend is for small
businesses, the REOA should explain why central Oregon should be seeking to change this trend,
rather than reinforce it.
At the outset this REOA looks impressive because of its size and cost. It states over and over that
large employers need large lots. The implicit assumption is that if we have the lots, the large
employers will come. But that assumption is not supported in the facts and analysis. The report
points out that new companies have located on large lots in and around the Portland region, but that
does not prove that the same or similar companies would have located here if we only had the land.
Central Oregon Office • 115 NW Oregon Ave #21 • Bend, OR 97701 •
(541) 719-8221 • fax (866) 394-3089
Page 6
Portland has numerous assets that central Oregon lacks such as the education level of its workforce,
several colleges and universities, interstate access, an international airport, and an international
shipping port. Some of those assets likely made a difference in the decisions to move to Portland,
rather than Bend, Prineville, or Madras.
1000 Friends supports efforts to achieve regional cooperation on land use decisions that improve
central Oregon’s economic outlook more than any smaller jurisdiction could have achieved alone. A
more robust analysis might reveal opportunities to create regional economic growth greater than
historic economic growth. It’s just that this document fails to do it.
I look forward to working closely with this group to make the land use system support economic
growth in our area. Please feel free to call if you have any questions.
Sincerely,
Pam Hardy
Staff Attorney & Central Oregon Advocate
775 Summer St, NE, Suite 200 • Salem, OR 97301–1280
503–986–0123 • fax 503–581–5115 • TTY 800–735–2900 • www.oregon4biz.com
May 19, 2011
Nick Lelack
Deschutes County Development Department
1300 NW Wall Street
Bend, OR 97701
Re: Central Oregon REOA
Dear Nick:
Business Oregon recommends that the findings of the Central Oregon Regional Advisory
Committee (RAC) should be formally adopted by the participating communities and the
Land Conservation and Development Commission.
The completion of this study and the implementation of its findings by the communities of
Central Oregon should prove to be a major step forward in the provision of large-lot sites
for potential employers, as well as family-wage jobs to its citizens. Our recommendation
for adoption is based on the following:
1. The methodology of the Regional Economic Opportunity Analysis (REOA) is
correct in its targeted approach to current industry trends, site selection
considerations, and land entitlement issues.
2. The REOA is correct in its recognition and analysis of the regional context in
which all high-value industrial recruitments take place.
3. The REOA is correct in the narrowness and the economy of its mission and
findings: the identification of a limited number of high-value locations to serve
the large-lot needs of a region over a short and long term planning horizon.
Methodology: The methodology of the study follows best practices in economic
development with its focus on a specific cross-section of industry and a specific land need.
This process is consistent with Oregon Business Development’s Key Industry strategy,
which identifies industries that are considered to be globally competitive in Oregon.
Further, industry identifications are made in a number of exhibits and summaries that cite
recent large-lot placements across the state and the nation.
The focus on sites is an important one and is a welcome approach. Site selectors focus on
narrow site requirements and regional inputs that meet specific needs. These needs vary
significantly from employer to employer. While some employers may focus on labor force
considerations, others may be more concerned with sites with superior water treatment,
2
power capacity, or needed redundancy in telecommunications. Further, other employers
may be focused on avoidance factors, as their operations may not be compatible with
nearby residential and commercial uses1
.
The consultant was correct in deriving a methodology for gross land demand in the large-
lot segment. It is our experience that these exercises are imprecise (it is hard to forecast 5
years in the future let alone 20), but can be used for consideration of scale and
appropriateness. The consultant used firms with more than 500 employees as a ‘general
proxy’ for large-lot demand. This is a very conservative assumption for multiple reasons.
First, firms with 500 employees are well within the range of what is considered small
business. The U.S. Small Business Administration defines small manufacturing businesses
as having a maximum between 500 and 1,500 employees and small wholesaling to have
between a 100 and 150 employees2. Facilities in these employment ranges for
manufacturing and small wholesaling can exceed the 50-acre threshold. Second, many of
the large-lot employers in the state and the country start at levels well below 500
employees and ramp-up production and employment over a period of years and even
decades. Third, highly efficient, automated and capital intensive industries are producing
more product with fewer employees. Since 1975, U.S. inflation adjusted manufacturing
output has more than doubled while employment in manufacturing has shrunk by more
than 30%3
.
The Urban Land Institute, a well respected organization in real estate, sustainable
development and land use, has specifically deemphasized employment growth as a
determinant of the demand for industrial space in its leading publication on real estate
market analysis: “Unlike office demand, the need for most types of industrial space is
difficult to determine using employment projections. Most industrial uses generate
comparatively few jobs per square foot of leasable area, and space needs have little to do
with changes in the number of jobs in production or distribution businesses.”4
The consultant was correct to cross-check his findings from the admittedly blunt
‘employment context’ with economic development professionals, at the state and local
level, who work with businesses and real estate concerns on a daily basis. Those methods
are included in the REOA and were appropriately blended with the gross land demand
methodology mentioned above. Further, ample supporting evidence was provided,
including actual industry recruitments in Oregon and Southern Washington (Figure 20),
Recent Major Target Industry Placements (Figure 21), Industrial Development Profile
Matrix (Figure 23). Finally, a balanced account of the strengths and challenges associated
with large lot development was presented for each of the participating counties.
1 All of the factors mentioned above are also incorporated into the Governor’s Shovel Ready Industrial Site
Certification Program.
2 Source: http://www.sba.gov/content/what-sbas-definition-small-business-concern
3 Federal Reserve. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4 Real Estate Market Analysis Methods and Case Studies, Second Edition, ULI Press
3
Regional Context: Regions are considered to be more essential to site selection than
specific towns or communities for a variety of reasons. Most large employers count on
labor sheds for workers that extend beyond the city of origin. The broad range of skills and
backgrounds needed to fulfill the needs of the largest and most sophisticated
manufacturing, research and warehousing facilities are not frequently met by a single
community. Further, needed educational programs are usually met through regional
college and community college systems. Mobility considerations, an increasingly
important supply chain factor, are also provided on a regional basis as the major transfer
points between ports, airports, highways, and rail systems are usually developed with a
regional service area clearly in mind.
The regional focus on the implementation of the plan should also prove to be a substantial
economic advantage. Regional decision making around site selection, infrastructure
financing and marketing will all be viewed as assets by recruiters and potential users.
Findings: A readily available and developable inventory of six large sites in at least three
separate jurisdictions will provide for some diversity in locations and features in order to
meet the highly individualized needs of prospective industries. This is a modest
recommendation for a region the size of Central Oregon and should be the region’s first
priority. A further recommendation to plan for a long-term inventory of 17 sites in five
communities is also reasonable given Central Oregon’s potential for long-term growth.
The mechanisms for providing these sites should be thought over carefully, in order to
insure a consistent level of short-term competitive sites.
Having multiple sites in multiple communities increases the chances of meeting the needs
of a specific employer and is an essential component of any 20-year inventory. One
employer might find a northerly Portland-facing location in Madras as a perfect fit, while
another employer might find a Southern, more California facing, location in La Pine to be
more appropriate. The identification of sites in both Redmond and Bend are essential, as
these are the two largest and most recognizable communities in the region. Prineville is
quickly raising its profile as a center for new industry with its recruitment of Facebook and
its certification of three industrial sites, with one more pending. Further, these sites are
likely to have differing site-specific attributes as they relate to labor force, transportation,
utilities, and avoidance issues that employers will seek out for highly individualized
reasons.
In summary, this is a state of the art approach for identifying the land needs of industry. It
recognizes the targeted and diverse set of regional and site-specific factors that traded
sector large-lot users require. A regional large-lot strategy benefits a variety of businesses
and we are confident that the very capable communities in the three county region can
focus on multiple priorities, including those of large and small business whether they are
existing or new, locally grown or based in another state or country. This effort should
become a model for the state, moving towards a land provision model that encourages land
4
efficiency and economic growth through a strategic emphasis on industry analysis, local
capacity and regional cooperation.
Sincerely,
Michael J. Williams
Oregon Business Development, Industrial Lands Specialist
Master of Regional Planning
Adjunct Professor, Portland State School of Urban Studies and Planning
c: Land Conservation and Development Commission
316 SW Washington, Suite 1020 Portland, OR 97204 503/295 7832
May 31, 2011
Nick Lelack
DESCHUTES COUNTY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
1300 NW Wall Street
Bend, OR 97701
SUBJECT: Response to May 17 th Letter from 1000 Friends of Oregon Relating to the Central
Oregon REOA
Dear Nick:
This letter responds to a May 17th letter received from 1000 Friends of Oregon as it relates to the
Regional Economic Opportunities Analysis (REOA). The letter was drafted by Pam Hardy, who was also
active in the advisory committee that assisted in the development of the REOA. I have structured my
response to parallel the aforementioned letter, and have tried to address the range of substantive
issues raised.
GENERAL COMMENTS ON THE REOA
I. Strengths and Weaknesses not adequately considered
Ms. Hardy claims that the strengths and weaknesses of various areas were not
adequately considered in the REOA. As an example, she cites issues such as the
relative percentage of the population with college degrees in Bend v. Madras, and the
potential impact that may have on the two jurisdictions’ relative attractiveness.
I would respond to Ms. Hardy’s contention on multiple fronts. First of all, the point of
the Regional approach in Central Oregon was to recognize that the individual
communities worked cooperatively as a largely cohesive economic unit, with business
and commuting patterns reflecting this relationship. As a result, the labor force was
seen as mobile within the region. The study does not make a distinction within the
region as to which jurisdiction will be most viable for certain employment types, but it
does outline the relative strengths and weaknesses from an economic development
perspective of the constituent jurisdictions.
In addition, the identified target industries reflect those with locational needs
consistent with the Central Oregon region. The targeted industries have been
deemed as the most likely to locate in the region by both Business Oregon and
Economic Development for Central Oregon (EDCO), a finding reinforced by the
subsequent research done by Johnson Reid.
PAGE 2
II. Large Lot Employers
Ms. Hardy feels that the case is not made that large lot employers create a strong and
thriving economy. We would agree that attracting these types of employers is not a
necessary condition or alone enough to create a “strong and thriving economy”. The
intent of the technical advisory committee in developing the vision statement was to
state a desire to maintain this type of inventory. It was perceived by the group to
represent an additional tool to broaden the region’s economic attractiveness, but by
no means to represent the entirety of their economic development efforts.
III. Lot Supply Relative to Other Communities
The newest version of the REOA has addressed many of Ms. Hardy’s comments
regarding the ability of smaller cities to attract large employers. As outlined in
Appendix B, we have seen a number of similarly sized or smaller jurisdictions have
considerable success in attracting large firms.
IV. Link between REOA and Population Projections
The critique points out that individual jurisdictions within the region have population
and employment forecasts already in place, and incremental increases in employment
will entail employment growing faster than population. While population and
employment growth projections are expected to be coordinated, they do not have to
be synchronized. Central Oregon as a region has had a consistent disconnect between
population and employment numbers. Between 2000 and 2010, Central Oregon
added 47,000 residents, reflecting a 31% increase. During that same period, covered
employment in the region increased by 5,521 jobs, or 9%. Due to the high percentage
of retirement and second homes in Central Oregon, the relationship between
population and employment has historically been unusually weak.
The magnitude of any marginal shift in employment related to the limited number of
sites identified through the REOA is not particularly significant relative to the overall
employment needs in Central Oregon. If the inclusion of these lands increases
employment in the region, population numbers can be adjusted commensurately if
the region sees fit.
V. REO assumes that large, established employers in traded sector industries are the primary
drivers of job creation.
As noted previously, the REOA does not assume that large employers are the primary
drivers of job creation, although we would maintain that traded sector industries are
primary drivers. The REOA’s findings on large lot industrial demand reflect that
accommodating these types of users reflects a reasonable component of an economic
development strategy. As outlined in the REOA, these types of users are actively
seeking locations, and Central Oregon to a large extent has been unable to compete
effectively for this type of industrial activity.
PAGE 3
We would agree with 1000 Friends research on “economic gardening”. This concept
is hardly new, and simply reflects a semantic if not substantive shift in economic
development efforts. Start up firms are an important component of economic
growth, and have been for many decades. While larger firms in aggregate did lose
jobs, it is important to recognize that many large firms expanded considerably during
the period outlined in the 1000 Friends letter, and that many of the start ups were
established to serve the larger firms.
Again, the REOA does not diminish the importance of small, start up firms. What it
does do is note that these firms represent only a portion of the spectrum of firms, and
a balanced economic development program would provide for these types of firms as
well as larger industrial firms. The two categories are complementary, not
competitive.
VI. Central Oregon is not the Portland Region.
We readily recognize that economic development opportunities in Central Oregon will
be fundamentally different than those in the Portland metropolitan area, and have
made efforts to reflect this in the REOA. As part of this effort, we recruited extensive
participation by industrial recruiters from Business Oregon and EDCO, as well as
including Larry Pederson of IronWolf on our team. The input of these participants was
invaluable in generating a list of viable target industries specific to Central Oregon, as
well as documenting their specific needs.
In summary, we believe that the comments provided by 1000 Friends have been either substantively
addressed by recent edits, or reflect a misunderstanding of the work and findings. The large lot
industrial demand outlined in the REOA is intended to address the potential for exogenous industrial
opportunities that the region is not currently competitive for, and not to diminish the more general
need to appeal to a broad spectrum of firm types and sizes. During the preparation of this report we
consistently sought the best available information from the most experienced practitioners, and the
findings of the REOA are reflective of this input. The targeted industries are regionally specific, their
requirements well documented, and represent viable economic development opportunities for the
region.
Sincerely,
Jerry Johnson
Principal
Johnson Reid, LLC
June 3, 2011
Nick Lelack
Deschutes County Planning Department
1300 NW Wall Street
Bend, OR 97701
Dear Nick,
I would like to respond to a letter submitted to you regarding the Central Oregon Regional
Economic Opportunities Analysis (REOA) by 1000 Friends of Oregon dated May 17, 2010. (I
believe the letter’s author intended the date to be 2011.) As a member of the REOA over the past
nine months, my first comment is to point out that the group is comprised of every community
development and top planner for the cities and counties in the Central Oregon area. These are our
local land use experts working day-by-day in the field. None appears to share the view, position or
perspective expressed by the letter.
Generally, I found the letter relatively hard to follow from one subject to another and some were
covered in the same paragraph. Many of the points made within the letter:
do not pertain to the task at hand, namely to determine if a shortage of large acreage
industrial land is a hindrance to overall economic development and diversification efforts,
are focused on economic development strategy, not economic opportunities (and uses
references of relatively simplistic or “in vogue” economic development concepts),
attempt to insert 1000 Friends subjective statements about specific industries and even
companies into what should be a part of the REOA methodology, and
clearly comes from a perspective that favors the status quo for our current land use system
rather than the innovation.
This letter is an attempt to coherently address the major concerns raised by 1000 Friends, not in the
order cited in the letter, but by category.
Status Quo
The first few pages attempt to make a case that existing land use law provides all the tools necessary
for communities to meet large and small industrial development needs. If this were the case, the
DLCD grant for this project would be a complete waste of valuable time and resources. The
implication that large industrial lot needs could somehow be met using existing land already inside
Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs) or vacant buildings is simply wishful thinking. If history has
provided any lessons for Oregon communities the past decade they would be that there is a natural
propensity for industrial land within UGBs to be converted from industrial zoning to other uses.
Most Central Oregon communities have already completed inventories of industrial land and for
some there are virtually no options or they are extremely limited. Similarly, while considerable
aggregate inventory currently exists for existing industrial buildings in the region, they consist mostly
of small footprints, problematic adjacent zoning and uses, older structures - none can meet the need
of a large user even if consolidation was physically or economically feasible.
Page 2 of 4 1000 Friends Technical Response June 3, 2011
EDCO ▪ 109 NW Greenwood Avenue, Suite 102▪ Bend, OR 97701 ▪ 800 -342-4135 ▪ www.edcoinfo.com
The argument also is made that the solar equipment manufacturing industry in Oregon has been
able to grow, adding companies and jobs within existing UGBs. While it is true that former
semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Oregon have been a compelling asset to the industry, the
simple fact remains that locating such industrial developments outside UGBs is not legal in this
state. Given the sheer shortage of rural industrial land inventory and the requirement of companies
to develop their own onsite water and wastewater treatment, we should expect to see nearly 100% of
any industrial sector to grow within UGBs, and more specifically within the city limits of
municipalities. This again assumes that the status quo, in the face of persistent demand, is adequate
to deal with large lot users. This assumption is dubious.
The real question really remains: how many companies needing large industrial-zone acreage
bypassed Oregon because of the widely acknowledged dearth of such properties? The REOA
attempts and, we believe succeeds, to quantify this inherently difficult metric.
Subjective Commentary
EDCO finds it very interesting that 1000 Friends have boldly made a value statement not only about
an industry communities in the region have selected to target, but actually a company that located
recently in the region. To this point, it is clear that the community in which that company located is
pleased with the result. Contradicting their own statement claiming that “There is no analysis of
whether any of the strengths or weaknesses would actually cause any large employer to locate in
Central Oregon” yet names that large employer, Facebook, that purchased 125 acres. Clearly, there
is very recent precedent, there is demand and there will be more. Apparently, because 1000 Friends
does not “like” the volume of land or utilities used by the facility or industry in general, this is not a
relevant example.
Economic Opportunities Analysis Scope & Economic Development Assumptions
The implication that a community’s large industrial lot needs – capacity to accommodate current or
future opportunities - can be met via improved education of its residents is entirely out of the scope
of the REOA. A case is also made that economic development strategies are not adequately
outlined as a part of the work to be completed by REOA. The purpose of the study was not to
provide an A-Z roadmap for economic development and the many and complicated steps needed to
achieve success for a community, the region, or for any specific industry. As a point of clarification,
these strategies are already in place. The scope of the REOA is to determine if a shortage of large
acreage industrial land is a hindrance to economic growth and diversification efforts. If so, the
REOA is to recommend steps to address this deficiency.
Comments made in the letter infer that attraction of large industrial lot users is the only strategy of
local and regional economic development efforts. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Efforts to help existing companies (large and small) to grow or sustain their employment have been
in place for more than a decade. Efforts to help start-ups and early stage companies are also solidly
established. Local and regional recruitment efforts to attract new firms do not focus only on large
employers or large facilities. Quite the contrary! A majority of time, money and effort is directed to
smaller operations – most of which may never have need of a large industrially-zoned lot. This has
been documented in presentations by the consultant and within the REOA. Most importantly, the
REOA is not a prescription of how to do economic development as 1000 Friends implies.
EDCO understands that most jobs come from existing companies, which is why it dedicates more
than 50% of its efforts to fostering entrepreneurship and the retention/expansion of existing traded-
sector companies. Recruitment of companies in new and existing industries, however, is an
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EDCO ▪ 109 NW Greenwood Avenue, Suite 102▪ Bend, OR 97701 ▪ 800 -342-4135 ▪ www.edcoinfo.com
important component of any successful economic development program and diversification
strategy. New companies bring a different mix of professional and technical talent to communities
that can spawn other businesses and technologies. Intel’s expansion to Hillsboro in the late 1970s is
a good example in Oregon. At that time it was a recruitment project, but in the subsequent decades
this global leader in semiconductor technology and production spun off more than 100 companies
(many small) that significantly contributed to the overall diversification of Oregon and of course
many well-paying jobs.
The letter also mistakenly tries to make the case that that large employment is generated by large
industrial lot users, which necessitates the amenities and resources, such as higher education found
only in larger metro areas. With several industries, this is not the case. While a typical
manufacturing company needing 50-100 acres and building 200,000 – 1,000,000 square feet would
employ thousands of people, this does not hold true for the data center industry, warehousing and
distribution industry and certain high technology manufacturers such as are found in electronics and
the renewable energy industry (i.e. polycrystalline refinement). In fact, it is more likely that
companies in these sectors will actually seek less populated areas to locate operations because of
several cost factors including land, transportation capacity, utilities and labor.
Furthermore, there should be no assumption, as is made in the 1000 Friends letter, that location of
these operations, on a per company basis, generates a large jump in economic or population growth.
Similarly, population growth rarely determines where large facilities are located.
A case is made in the letter that small employers create jobs and large employers (a false premise for
large industrial lot users) shed jobs. Research on this topic is far from conclusive. An obvious
question raised by this hypothesis is: What happens to start up activity in the absence of large
employers? That is to say, if you have a dearth of larger employers, from which a disproportionate
number of small ventures spring, what is the corresponding rate of new or small company job
growth. Would the Seattle area have over 1,000 software firms if Microsoft were located in New
Mexico? The fact remains that the “who creates jobs” argument misses the point of the REOA.
Without places for larger employers OR industries that need large acreage, Central Oregon (and the
state overall) implicitly forces out these operations. A real world example of where this is
happening is Boulder, Colorado.
The Boulder area is a hotbed for startup activity, research and development and technology transfer
from area universities, anchored by the University of Colorado. But strict planning controls in
Boulder force out the most successful companies because there is literally no place for companies of
size to locate. Some find homes in neighboring communities, others leave the state altogether. This
trend is documented in a 2010 study by Headwaters Economics of Bozeman, MT that specifically
compares peer communities in the western U.S. to Central Oregon (Deschutes County).
Toward the end of the 1000 Friends letter, it makes reference that Central Oregon simply can’t
compete with urban areas for large projects. The fact is that we do compete on a regular basis with
areas with much larger populations including Boise, Spokane, Seattle (and surrounding communities)
Portland, Reno and other small/midsize metros that offer similar lifestyle attributes and mix of
business location factors. Often, Central Oregon is competing for projects where owners or
managers are not looking for a dense urban area for their operations where the cost of land is
expensive, transportation routes too congested, labor costs and competition are high.
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EDCO ▪ 109 NW Greenwood Avenue, Suite 102▪ Bend, OR 97701 ▪ 800 -342-4135 ▪ www.edcoinfo.com
Lastly, the letter reiterates the position of 1000 Friends of Oregon that the REOA is lacking and that
their organization supports regional cooperation and land use decisions that foster economic
growth. The proposal outlined in the REOA to create an inventory of six sites initially region-wide
that would be exclusive for large-lot users is innovative, does not dismantle Oregon’s land use
system and provides some options and alternatives to attract employers to the region. It also
enjoys the unified support of city and county planning directors, Oregon’s economic development
department, and EDCO. To say the least, it is disappointing that the work encompassed by the
REOA garnered so little support and so little constructive feedback from 1000 Friends. Still, now
is the time to move on and move forward. With unemployment rates in Central Oregon more than
double state and national averages, action, not rhetoric or preservation of the status quo is needed.
Respectfully,
Roger J. Lee
Executive Director