HomeMy WebLinkAboutOrdinance 2009-006, Amend Title 23 to Adopt a Poplutaion Forecast for City of La Pine0.31-Ee
Deschutes County Board of Commissioners
1300 NW Wall St., Suite 200, Bend, OR 97701 -1960
(541) 388 -6570 - Fax (541) 385 -3202 - www.deschutes.org
AGENDA REQUEST & STAFF REPORT
For Board Business Meeting of May 13, 2009
DATE: April 22, 2009
FROM: Peter Gutowsky
Community Development Department 385 -170')
TITLE OF AGENDA ITEM:
Consideration of Second Reading and Adoption of Ordinance No. 2009 -006, amending Title 23
Chapters 23.16.020, 23.24.010 and 23.48.010 of the Deschutes County Code.
PUBLIC HEARING ON THIS DATE? No.
BACKGROUND AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS:
The City of La Pine, which incorporated in 2006, continues to use the Deschutes County
Comprehensive Plan and implementing zoning ordinances. City leaders are currently administering; an
Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development grant to establish their first comprehensive
plan. When it is finally adopted, La Pine's Comprehensive Plan will establish an Urban Growth
Boundary (UGB) and designate land within it for urbanized uses. The plan will also provide policy
language to guide urban development of those lands, including at a later date, subsequent zoning maps
and development codes consistent its policy directives. Beyond land use, La Pine's Comprehensive
Plan will attempt to determine the City's future needs for roads, parks, water, sewer services, and ether
critical public facilities.
Estimating population growth is one of the lynchpins of Statewide Planning Goal 14, Urbanization It is
a tool that city planners use to determine buildable lands inventories, housing and employment
opportunities, future land need, and ultimately a UGB. Oregon counties are required to adopt
coordinated population projections for each city within their jurisdiction. Deschutes County's
Coordinated Population Forecast was adopted into its comprehensive plan in fall 2004.
The Board held a public hearing and first reading on April 22, 2008 to consider adopting a Coordir ated
Population Forecast for the City of La Pine. A second reading of Ordinance No. 2009 -006 is now
scheduled for May 13. Once the Board adopts the ordinance, County staff will work forward the
materials to the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development .
FISCAL IMPLICATIONS:
None.
RECOMMENDATION & ACTION REQUESTED:
Initiate a second reading and adoption of Ordinance No. 2009 -006.
ATTENDANCE: Peter Gutowsky, Legal Counsel
DISTRIBUTION OF DOCUMENTS:
Peter Gutowsky, CDD.
For Recording Stamp Only
BEFORE THE BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS OF DESCHUTES COUNTY, OREGON
An Ordinance Amending Deschutes County Code
Title 23, the Deschutes County Comprehensive Plan,
Adopting a Coordinated Population Forecast for the
City of La Pine.
*
*
*
ORDINANCE NO. 2009-006
WHEREAS, pursuant to ORS 195.036, Deschutes County, acting as the coordinating body under ORS
195.025, is required to establish and to maintain a population forecast for the County, including the cities of
Bend, La Pine, Redmond, and Sisters; and
WHEREAS, the City of La Pine incorporated on November 7, 2006, after the County adoption of the
last coordinated population forecast; and
WHEREAS, the County coordinated with the City of La Pine and the Oregon Department of Land
Conservation and Development, to develop a new population forecast for the City for the years 2009 to 2029;
and
WHEREAS, the Deschutes County Planning Commission held a public hearing on March 12, 2009 on
the proposed City of La Pine population forecast and forwarded a recommendation to the Board of County
Commissioners ( "Board ") to adopt the proposed population forecast; and
WHEREAS, the Board held a public hearing on April 22, 2009 on the proposed City of La Pine
population forecast; and
WHEREAS, the Board finds it in the public interest to adopt the coordinated City of La Pine 2009 to
2029 population forecast ; now, therefore,
THE BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS OF DESCHUTES COUNTY, OREGON, ORDAINS
as follows:
Section 1. AMENDMENT. DCC 23.16.020, Population, is amended to read as described in Exhibit
"A," attached hereto and by this reference incorporated herein, with new language underlined and language to
be deleted in s rile.
Section 2. AMENDMENT. DCC 23.24.010, Rural Development, is amended to read as described in
Exhibit "B," attached hereto and by this reference incorporated herein, with new language underlined and
language to be deleted in strip.
Section 3. AMENDMENT. DCC 23.48.010, Urbanization, is amended to read as described in Exhibit
"C," attached hereto and by this reference incorporated herein, with new language underlined and language to be
deleted in strikethrough.
PAGE 1 OF 2 - ORDINANCE NO. 2009-006 (04/13/09)
Section 4. FINDINGS. The Board adopts as its findings Exhibit "D," attached and incorporated by
reference herein.
Dated this of , 2009 BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
OF DESCHUTES COUNTY, OREGON
ATTEST:
TAMMY BANEY, Chair
DENNIS R. LUKE, Vice Chair
Recording Secretary ALAN UNGER, Commissioner
Date of 1St Reading: day of , 2009.
Date of 2"d Reading: day of , 2009.
Record of Adoption Vote
Commissioner
Tammy Baney
Dennis R Luke
Alan Unger
Yes No Abstained Excused
Effective date: day of , 2009.
ATTEST:
Recording Secretary
PAGE 2 OF 2 - ORDINANCE NO. 2009-006 (04/13/09)
EXHIBIT "A"
23.16.020. Population.
The population of the County has increased significantly since the adoption of the comprehensive plan in
1979.
Population Growth in Deschutes County: 1980 to 2000
Sources
1980
1990
2000
Population Research Center - July 1 estimates
62,500
75,600
116,600
Census Bureau - April 1 census counts
62,142
74,958
115,367
ORS 195.025(1) requires the counties to coordinate local plans and population forecasts. In 1996, Bend,
Redmond, Sisters and the County reviewed the most recent population forecasts from the Portland State
University Center for Population Research and Census, the Department of Transportation, Woods and
Poole, the Bonneville Power Administration and the State Department of Administrative Services Office of
Economic Analysis. After review of these projections, the cities and Deschutes County agreed on the
coordinated population forecast adopted by the County in 1998 by Ordinance 98 -084
The results of the 2000 decennial census and subsequent population estimates prepared by the Population
Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University revealed the respective populations of the County and
the incorporated cities were growing faster that contemplated under the 1998 coordinated forecast. The
cites and the County engaged in a coordination process between 2002 and 2004 that culminated with the
County adopting a revised population forecast that projected population for the cities and the County to the
year 2025. The following table displays the 2004 coordinated population forecast for Deschutes County and
the urban growth boundaries of the cities of Bend, Redmond, and Sisters from 2000 to 2025:
2{
0-2025 CoorinatedPopulation Forecast;
Year
Bend UGB
Redmond UGB
Sisters UGB
Unincorporated
County
Total
County
2000
52,800
15,505
975
47,320
116,600
2005
69,004
19,249
1,768
53,032
143,053
2010
81,242
23,897
2,306
59,127
166,572
2015
91,158
29,667
2,694
65,924
189,443
2020
100,646
36,831
3,166
73,502
214,145
2025
109,389
45,724
3,747
81,951
240,811
The process through which the County and the cities coordinated to develop the 2000 -2025 coordinated
forecast is outlined in the report titled "Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast 2000 - 2025:
Findings in Support of Forecast" dated July 2004. This report provides the findings in support of the
adopted forecast. The Deschutes County Year 2000 Comprehensive Plan (1979) included a population
forecast from 1980 to 2000 that was incorporated in several chapters. In 1998, the County adopted a
coordinated population forecast under ORS 195.036. The following table displays all three forecasts for
comparison:
PAGE 1 OF 3 - EXHIBIT "A" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
EXHIBIT "A"
Deschutes ; County Population Forecasts,
from_>1979, "2998, and 2004
Year
1979
forecast
1998
forecast
2004
forecast
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
53,400
66,600
82,900
103,400
128,200
74,958
94,100
113,231
132,239
151,431
167,911
182,353
116,600
143,053
166,572
189,443
214,145
240,811
The fourth Deschutes County_ is the City of La Pine. Incorporated on November 7,2006, the City of
La Pine's 2006 population estimate of 1,590 was certified by Portland State University, Population and
Research Center on December 15, 2007. As of January 1, 2009, La Pine is coordinating with the Oregon
Department Conservation and Development to develop ...its first ._comprehensive plan. As.._a result of
La Pine incor oration Deschutes Coun u dated its Coordinated Po . ulation Forecast with Ordinance
2009 -006. The purpose of this rn.od.ification was to adopt a conservative twenty, year pc pulation forecast for
the City of La Pine that can be used by city officials and the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and
Development to estimate future land need and an I3urban. L growth Bboundary. - The fb lowing table
displays the coordinated population forecast for Deschutes County, the urban growth boundaries of the cities
of Bend., Redmond, and Sisters, and the city of La Pine from 2000 to 2025:
000
5 di ated Po nia
'Ft
eras
Year Bend UGB Redmond Sisters La Pine Unincorporated Total
UGB UGB UGB
County County,
2000
• 52,800
15,505
975
47,320
116,600
2005
69,004
19,249
1,768
53,032
143.053
2010
81,242
23,897
2.306
1.,692_
57,430
100,572
2015 .
91,158
29,667
2,694
1..x892
64.032
189.443
2020
190646
36,8 31
3,166
2,_1.1.0
71.,3.92
214.145
2025
109,389
45,724
3,747
2,352
79,599
240,811.
In the fall of 1998, the Oregon Water Resources Department acknowledged that virtually all groundwater in
the Deschutes River basin discharges to the rivers of the basin. The Water Resources Department may place
restrictions on the consumptive use of groundwater to protect the free flowing nature of the Deschutes
River, instream water rights and existing water rights. These restrictions may affect the use of groundwater
resources for future development and consequently affect the future growth and allocation of population in
the County and the three-four urban jurisdictions.
PAGE 2 OF 3 - EXHIBIT "A" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
1 (Ord. 2009 -006 1, 2009; Ord. 2003 -078 §1, 2003; Ord. 2003 -001 §1, 2003; Ord. 2000 -017 §1, 2000; Ord.
98 -084 §1, 1998; PL -20, 1979)
Chapter 23.16 3 (09/2004)
EXHIBIT "B"
23.24.010. Rural development.
The primary duty of this comprehensive plan is to guide growth and development in the rural areas of
Deschutes County. The Urbanization chapter discusses urban area growth, but the primary plans for the
County's major communities are the three urban area plans. The Deschutes County Comprehensive Plan is
focused upon the changes that will be taking place outside the urban growth boundaries. This chapter is
meant to tie together the various more specific chapters that deal with resource and growth management so
that an integrated plan for the development of the County may be obtained.
Being the fastest growing County in Oregon has meant many changes for Deschutes County. Some of the
changes, such as improved social, cultural and economic opportunities, are seen as beneficial. Others, such
as traffic congestion, loss of scenic views, and rising taxes to pay for public services, are changes most
people would like to do without.
The public process for developing the Deschutes County Year 2000 Comprehensive Plan (1979) occurred
during a time of rapid population growth in the County. The County's population was growing at around
6.3 percent a year. The population of unincorporated Deschutes County was estimated at 49,700.
Population growth was expected to occur at a rate of 4.5 percent per year through the year 2000. In 1979,
the County population forecast for the year 2000 was 128,200. The 2000 Census count for the County's
population was 115,367, with 48,898 people residing in unincorporated areas of the County. By 2003, the
County's estimated population was 130,500. If population growth occurs as forecasted, 32.279 3476 -31 new
residents will reside in rural areas by 2025.
Much of the development that has occurred locally has been the standard parcelization of land into small
(less than 10 acres) lots. This dispersed pattern is often the most costly to serve; the most wasteful of
energy, land and resources; the least esthetic; and the most destructive to rural character. Planned
Developments, such as Indian Ford Planned Development, often provide a more efficient and beneficial
manner in which to serve the public demand for rural recreational or residential experience. Destination
resorts, such as Black Butte Ranch and dude ranches, have been found locally to be economically and
socially desirable land uses, when located and developed consistent with the capabilities of the land and the
abilities of various public and private agencies to serve that area.
Recreational subdivision was originally seen as a benefit to the County as the non - resident landowners
would be contributing to the County tax base. This probably resulted in areas like La Pine subsidizing other
portions of the County. Now the recreation subdivisions are filling up with retirees and younger people
seeking less expensive building lots. The result is a call for more services in areas far from existing service
facilities and in subdivisions where roads and other improvements were meant only for seasonal and limited
use. As demand continues to grow, to provide adequate service levels it will be necessary for other areas to
subsidize the recreational areas for many years. Studies by Oregon State University indicate that Deschutes
County is likely faced with such a situation presently.
The County has witnessed losses of agricultural, forest and other resource lands, as well as seen the expense
and esthetic losses created by urban sprawl. Studies such as "The Costs of Sprawl" have emphasized the
greater efficiencies that can be obtained by a more condensed and planned development pattern. When
these factors were combined with State requirements to contain development in urban areas, there was no
question to the Overall CAC that the updated comprehensive plan would have to address the issue of
containing urban sprawl and protecting the rural character of the County.
The predominant rural land uses in the County are open spaces, pasture and limited crop production,
livestock production, natural resource utilization and wildlife cover. There is also residential use and some
commercial and industrial activity in the rural service centers. Unfortunately, the unrestrictive zoning
permitted in the rural service centers has allowed incompatible adjacent land uses and not resulted in
PAGE 1 OF 2 — EXHIBIT "B" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
EXHIBIT `B"
providing the needed services for the surrounding rural areas. In the case of Deschutes Junction this result is
combined with another factor in that Bend's urban sprawl is augmented by development at the junction.
Interestingly, the residents of the rural service centers, except for La Pine, have expressed concern that
higher levels of development in their locales would be incompatible with the existing rural nature of the
area. They agree that there is a need for limited and controlled growth, but that the rural character of the
community must be maintained.
To guide development into appropriate patterns the following goals have been prepared.
1 (Ord. 2009 -006 §2, 2009.„Ord. 2004 -012 § 3, 2004; Ord. 2002 -005 § 1, 2002; Ord. 2000 -017 § 1, 2000;
Ord. 92 -051, 1992; PL -20, 1979)
PAGE 2 OF 2 — EXHIBIT `B" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
23.48.010. Urbanization.
EXHIBIT "C"
A major emphasis in Oregon's land use planning is locating the majority of new development in urban areas.
The rural areas are primarily to be protected for natural resource utilization. Between the urban areas
(incorporated cities) and the rural areas lies what is referred to as the urbanizing area. Usually under the
jurisdiction of the County, this is the area where the future population will be located and where the city's
services must be extended.
In Deschutes County the wee incorporated cities of Bend, Redmond and Sisters have been given the
authority, by the County, to prepare plans for their respective urban areas. These plans are coordinated with
the County's planning effort and will eventually be adopted as part of the County's comprehensive plan. In
addition to a plan each city also prepares an urban area zoning ordinance and a cooperative agreement for
mutually administering the urbanizing area.
All three incorporated cities were growing at rapid rates by the time the Deschutes County Year 200(
Comprehensive Plan was adopted in 1979. At that time, the County estimated Bend's urban area container
a population of 33,000 people, Redmond's was approximately 7,500, and Sisters' approximately 900. All o
the cities were expected to continue their growth to the year 2000. The 2000 Census results for Ben( ,
Redmond, and Sisters were 52,029, 13,481, and 959, respectively. In 2000, 58 percent of the County'
population lived in urban areas.
The fourth city in Deschutes County is the City of La Pine. Incorporated on November 7, 2006, the City of
La Pine's 2006 population estimate of 1,590 was certified by Portland State University, Population at d
Research Center on December 15, 2007. As of January 1, 2009, La Pine is coordinating with the Oreg( n
Department of Land Conservation and Development to develop its first comprehensive plan, which when
acknowledged, will officially recognize an urban growth boundary.
The Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast, adopted in August 2004 estimated thatBby the
year 2025, the County's population is forecasted towill reach 240,811 people. Theis 2004 forecast i-xe1+des
estimated 109,389 people in Bend, 45,724 people in Redmond, and 3,747 people in Sisters, and 81,951 in
non - urban, unincorporated areas. If population growth occurs as forecasted in 2004, 66 percent of tape
County's population will reside in urban areas by 2025.
By 2025
Redmond,
19%
As a result of the La Pine incorporation, Deschutes County updated its Coordinated Population For cast
with Ordinance 2009 -006. The purpose of this modification was to adopt a conservative twenty year
population forecast for the City of La Pine that can be used by city officials and the Oregon Depac late it of
PAGE 1 OF 2 — EXHIBIT "C" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (05/13/09)
EXHIBIT "C"
Land Conservation and Development to estimate future land need and an urban growth boundary.
Deschutes County's 2004 Coordinated Population Forecast applied a conservative 2.2% annual average
growth rate to estimate the county's unincorporated population from 2000 to 2025. This method applied the
growth rate as a compounding rate throughout the entire forecast. Recognizing that incorporation occurred
on November 7, 2006, it is reasonable to apply a 2.2% annual average growth rate to La Pine's estimated
population, starting in July 1, 2007, the first time Portland State University's Population Research Center
officially certified the City of La Pine in an Annual Population Report. By extending the growth rate to the
Year 2025, La Pine's population will be 2,352. The non -urban unincorporated population decreases by
2,352 from its original projection of 81,951 to 79,599. Extending the growth rate to the Year 2029 results in
a twenty year population estimate of 2,566 for La Pine.
Such growth will undoubtedly create severe problems for the provision of public services and adequate
amounts of residential, commercial and industrial lands. Other problems are the protection of important .
aesthetic values, needed improvements in appearance and function of existing developments, safety and
aesthetic problems, as well as energy and service costs, created by strip development; and problems with
coordination and cooperation between the various agencies serving the public in urban areas, a problem
which already exists.
Some opportunities also exist. Cities in Deschutes County are located in one of the most beautiful and
livable environments in the State. All of the communities have within their authority the power to guide
their community's growth for the public's benefit. Cooperation and mutual effort between the cities, special
districts and the County could mean urban environments that not only function efficiently but are attractivw
and desirable places to live.
The purposes of DCC 23.48 are to provide the link between the urban and rural areas, and to provide some
basic parameters within which the urban areas of Deschutes County shall develop, although the specific
urban area plan for each community shall be the prevailing document for guiding growth in its respective
area. These policies will peiinit the County to review each urban area plan against common criteria and
assure consistency County-wide.
(Ord. 2009 -006 §3, 2009; Ord. 2004 -012 §4, 2004; Ord. 2002 - 005 §1, 2002; Ord. 2000 -017 §1, 2000; Ord.
92 -051, 1992; PL -20, 1979)
PAGE 2 OF 2 — EXHIBIT "C" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (05/13/09)
0 J ►- Community Development Department
EXHIBIT "D"
Planning Division Building Safety Division Environmental Health Division
117 NW Lafayette Avenue Bend Oregon 97701 -1925
(541)388 -6575 FAX (541)385 -1764
http : / /www.co.deschutes.or.us /cdd/
STAFF REPORT
TO: Deschutes County Board of Commissioners
FROM: Peter Gutowsky, Principal Planner
CC: Nick Lelack, Planning Director
DATE: April 8, 2009
SUBJECT: Comprehensive Plan Amendment / La Pine Population Forecast / Public Hearing
MEETING: April 22, 2009
The Deschutes County Board of Commissioners will hold a public hearing on April 22, 2009
starting at 10:00 a.m. at the Deschutes Service Center to consider legislative plan amendments
to Deschutes County Code (DCC) Chapters 23.16.020, 23.24.010, and 23.48.010.1
ISSUE:
Initiated by County staff, Plan Amendment 09 -1 (PA 09 -1) encompassed in Ordinance 2009 -006
amends urbanization related chapters of the Deschutes County Comprehensive Plan. It
recognizes a twenty -year population forecast for the City of La Pine (2009 -2029) and adjusts
Deschutes County's rural population forecast.
RECOMMENDATION:
Adopt Ordinance No. 2009 -006, Exhibits A, B, C, and D.
BACKGROUND:
The City of La Pine, which incorporated in 2006 continues to use the Deschutes County
Comprehensive Plan and implementing zoning ordinances. City leaders are currently
administering an Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) grant to
establish their first comprehensive plan. When it is finally adopted, La Pine's Comprehensive
Plan will establish an Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) and designate and within it for urbanized
uses. The plan will also provide policy language to guide urban development of those lands,
including at a later date, subsequent zoning maps and development codes consistent its policy
directives. Beyond land use, La Pine's Comprehensive Plan will attempt to determine the City's
future needs for roads, parks, water, sewer services, and other critical public facilities.
1 A public notice, announcing the April 22, 2009 Planning Commission hearing was published in the
Bulletin on Sunday, April 5.
PAGE 1 OF 4 — EXHIBIT "D" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
Quality Services Performed with Pride
Estimating population growth is one of the lynchpins of Statewide Planning Goal 14,
Urbanization. It is a tool that city planners use to determine buildable lands inventories, housing
and employment opportunities, future land need, and ultimately a UGB.2 Oregon counties are
required to adopt coordinated population projections for each city within their jurisdiction.3
Deschutes County's Coordinated Population Forecast was adopted into its comprehensive plan
in Fall 2004.
FINDINGS:
1. Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast - Deschutes County adopted its
Coordinated Population Forecast (Forecast) in August 2004.4 As documented in the
Forecast, Tables 12, 13, and 14, it forecasted 81,951 residents in 2025 within the
unincorporated area of Deschutes County.5 The average annual growth rates for the
unincorporated county were calculated for the periods of 1980 to 1998 and 2000 to
2002. From 1980 to 1998, the population of the unincorporated county grew at an
average annual rate of 2.5 %. From 2000 to 2002, the population of the unincorporated
county grew at an average annual rate of 2.2 %.
Deschutes County found using a 2.2% average annual growth rate forecast was more
conservative than other forecasts, like those produced by Oregon Economic Analysis
(OEA). The OEA's average annual growth rate for the entire county from 2000
(116,600) to 2025 (209,919) was 2.4 %. The reason why it is slightly higher than the
County's 2.2% average annual growth rate is because it took into account projected
growth rates of Bend, Redmond, and Sisters, as well as the unincorporated area of
Deschutes County.
2. La Pine Incorporation - Incorporated on November 7, 2006, the City of La Pine's 2006
population estimate of 1,590 was certified by Portland State University, Population and
Research Center.6
3. Interagency Coordination - The City of La Pine is coordinating with the DLCD to
develop its first comprehensive plan, which when acknowledged, will officially recognize
a UGB. As a result of La Pine's comprehensive planning process, Deschutes County is
updating its Coordinated Population Forecast. The purpose of this modification is to
adopt a conservative twenty -year population forecast for the City of La Pine that can be
used by local officials and the DLCD to estimate future land need and a UGB.
4. Rural Population Forecast - Deschutes County's 2004 Coordinated Population
Forecast applied a conservative 2.2% annual average growth rate to estimate the
county's unincorporated population from 2000 to 2025. This method applied the growth
rate as a compounding rate throughout the entire forecast.
5. Applicability to City of La Pine - Deschutes County finds using a 2.2% average annual
growth rate forecast for La Pine, similar to its unincorporated area is the most
2 http: / /egov.oregon.gov /LCD /docs /goals /goal14.pdf
3 http: / /arcweb.sos.state.or.us /rules /OARS 600 /OAR 660/660 024.html See OAR 660 - 024 -0030.
4 Ordinance No. 2004 -012. http://www.deschutes.org/ index. cfm ?objectld= 516E27CD -15C5 -B8F6-
0843E318D5104FAF
5 Ibid. Page 14.
6 http: / /www.pdx.edu /prc/
PAGE 2 OF 4 — EXHIBIT "D" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
conservative methodology to use for the City's twenty year population projection. It is
reasonable to assume that the City of La Pine, as a relatively young municipality, will
grow at rates below those of the established cities of Bend, Redmond, and Sisters.
6. La Pine 2009 -2029 Methodology — The following table documents a 2.2% average
annual growth rate for the City of La Pine.
7. City of La Pine 2025 Population Forecast - By extending the 2.2% growth rate to Year
2025, La Pine's population will be 2,352.
8. City of La Pine 2029 Population Forecast - Extending the 2.2% growth rate to Year
2029 results in a twenty year population estimate of 2,566 for the City of La Pine.
9. Deschutes County 2025 Population Forecast Adjustment - Deschutes County's 2025
unincorporated population forecast decreases by 2,352 from its original projection of
81,951 to 79,598.
10. County Planning Commission Recommendation — The County Planning Commission
held a public hearing on March 12, deliberated, and unanimously recommended that the
Board adopt PA 09 -1.
See note 6 above. Table 4
PAGE 3 OF 4 — EXHIBIT "D" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
T ATE
Incorporation Nov. 7, 2006'
1,585
2007
1,590
2008
1,625
2009
1,661
2010
1,697
2011
1,735
2012
1,773
2.20
2013
1,812
2014
1,852
2015
1,892
2016
1,934
2017
1,977
2.20
2018
2,020
2019
2,064
2020
2,110
2021
2,156
2022
2,204
2.20
2023
2,252
2024
2,302
2025
2,352
2026
2,404
2027
2,457
2.20
2028
2,511
2029
7. City of La Pine 2025 Population Forecast - By extending the 2.2% growth rate to Year
2025, La Pine's population will be 2,352.
8. City of La Pine 2029 Population Forecast - Extending the 2.2% growth rate to Year
2029 results in a twenty year population estimate of 2,566 for the City of La Pine.
9. Deschutes County 2025 Population Forecast Adjustment - Deschutes County's 2025
unincorporated population forecast decreases by 2,352 from its original projection of
81,951 to 79,598.
10. County Planning Commission Recommendation — The County Planning Commission
held a public hearing on March 12, deliberated, and unanimously recommended that the
Board adopt PA 09 -1.
See note 6 above. Table 4
PAGE 3 OF 4 — EXHIBIT "D" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
11. DLCD Coordination - Mark Radabaugh, DLCD Central Oregon Regional
Representative supports Deschutes County findings. He submitted an email on March 2,
2009, stating the following:
Thanks for the opportunity to review the County's supplemental findings
for its new La Pine population forecast. The added language provides an
explanation of the County's reasoning and fact - finding which produced
the new city forecast, and this would appear to meet the intent of the
regulatory requirements under OAR 660 - 024 - 0030(2) which we cited in
our February 25, 2009 comment letter.
11. Plan amendment summary - The following table summarizes Ordinance 2009-
006, Exhibits A, B, and C.
�X B ter/
GCS' i
re 1
A
DCC 23.16.020
Amends DCC 23.16.020 by correcting a typo,
describing La Pine incorporation and updating
the Coordinated Population Forecast to include
La Pine's 2025 population estimate.
B
DCC 23.24.010
Amends DCC 23.24.010 by updating a 2025
rural population statistic.
Amends DCC 23.48.010 by describing La Pine
C
DCC 23.48.010
incorporation and updating the Coordinated
Population Forecast to include La Pine's 2029
population estimate.
PAGE 4 OF 4 — EXHIBIT "D" TO ORDINANCE 2009 -006 (04/22/09)
La Pine 20 Year
Population
Forecast
Board of County
Commission
Public Hearing
Cite of La Pine
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PLip uses fbr La Pi _ 1e PcpLiiiur. Frci
City leaders currently administering an Oregon Department
of Land Conservation and Development grant to establish
their first comprehensive plan
Upon adoption, La Pine Comprehensive Plan will establish a
UGB and designate land within it for urbanized uses
Estimating population growth is one of the lynchpins of
Statewide Planning Goal 14, Urbanization
Tool planners use to determine buildable lands inventories,
housing and employment opportunities, future land need,
and ultimately a UGB
Oregon counties are required to adopt coordinated
population projections for each city within their jurisdiction
Deschutes County's Coordinated Population Forecast was
adopted into its comprehensive plan in Fall 2004
IP I
r
YEAR
POPULATION
AEG' ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE
Incorporation Nov. 7, 2006'
1,585
2007
1,590
2008
1.525
MM. 2009
114 1661
2010
'1.697
2011
1,735
2012
1,773
2.20
2013
1,812
2014
1,852
2015
1,892
2016
1.934
2017
1.977
2.20
2018
2.020
2019
2,064
2020
2.,110
2021
2,156
2022
2,204
2.20
2023
2,252
2024
2.,302
2025
2.352
2026
2.404
2027
2.457
220
2028
2.511
2029 _._..F
2.560
CDDdiiLd P PD
rEc7d
Original Deschutes County 2000 -2025 Coordinated Population Forecast
Year
Bend 1 GB
Redmond
r
L GB
Sisters
UGB
L
Unincorporated Count-
tal
County
2000
52.800
15,505
975
47,320 116600
2005
69.004
19.249
1.768 53.03'
143,053
J 166,572 J
2010
81_242
23,897
2306
59.127
2015
91.158
29.66;'
2.694 65,924
189.443
2020
100.646
36,831
3.166 73,502
214A45
2025
109.389
45.724
3.747
81.951 ��
240,811
214 145
Updated Deschutes Count 2000 -2025 Coordinated Population Forecast
Year
Bend UGB
Redmond
L'GB
Sisters
UGB
La Pine
I GB
Unincorporated
County
Total
Count:
116:600
975
N/A
4 T. 20
2000
51.800
15.505
2005
69_.004
19,249
1.768
N: A
. , -) 2 143,053
2010
81.155
23,897
2306
1 69
, `.430 1
166,572
2015
91.158
29,667
2.694
t , -m _ 189,443
2020
100,646
36_.831
3.166
214 145
2‘7,2,:-7
1 U9y 38y
I 45.724
3_7-r
9L) 240,811
Pine Pcpuiit1uri FrJrEci5t
.
PincFing5
2.2% average annual growth rate used in 2004
Coordinated Population Forecast for rural county,
applied to La Pine
2.2% average annual growth rate more conservative
than other forecasts, like those produced by Oregon
Economic Analysis
Reasonable to assume that La Pine, as young
municipality, will grow at rates below those of the
established cities of Bend, Redmond, and Sisters
Estimates a 2029 population of 2,56E for City of La
Pine
pj \ffi ef]r, fflefi r
DE` H UTES
COJNTY MDF
IXI,IEIT
S UNWARY
A
DeC 23.16.020
Amends E C 23.16.020 by ccrrec:ing a typo,
descrbirg La Pine incorpor; t -L :n and updathg
the Coo-dinated Jcpulatic31 For euat to irclude
La p'ine's 2025 popuI, tim estimate.
DCC 23.24 010
Amerds CCU. 23.24.0 0 ;) upda:ing a 2025
rural population st istic,
DCC 23.48 010
Amencs DCC 23.43_0.10 by describing t pine
incorpormticn and updating tie Coo'drr ated
Populaticn Forecast to include La Pine's 2O2
population estimate_
fifflfflfldEi [l fi
Deschutes County Planning Commission
adoption of PA- 2009 -001
Staff recommending adoption of Ordinance 2009 -006,
Exhibits A, B, C, and D
isipior
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