Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutGrant Request - Calif LutheranEconomic Development Fund Discretionary Grant Program Organization: California Lutheran University Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF) Organization Description: CERF uses advanced statistical and modeling procedures to forecast economic activity. Currently, forecasts are developed for the United States, California, Oregon, Central Oregon and Ventura County. CERF also offers economic consulting services to private and public organizations. Project Name: Central Oregon Economic Forecast Project Project Description: This grant funds will be used to purchase local data, hire speakers, and rent a venue for the annual Central Oregon Forecast Presentation in January 2010. CERF will provide Deschutes County with 12 tickets to the presentation, invitations to the speaker dinner before the event and quarterly updates to the Central Oregon Forecast. Project Period: December 1, 2009 to December 1, 2010 Amount of Request: $3,000 (Estimated total cost = $30,000) Previous Grants: None Last year a grant for $1,000 ($1,000 Baney) was given to the UC -Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project. Bill Watkins, the executive director of the California Lutheran University CERF, recently left UC -Santa Barbara where he headed up the Economic Forecast Project. FROM : s rSn, Asstas o -i FAX NO. :918054933719 Sep. 28 2009 05:32PM P2 Deschutes County Board of Commissioners 1300 NW Wall St, Bend, OR 97701-1960 (541) 388-6570 - Fax (541) 385-3202 - www.desohutes.org DESCHUTES COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FUND DISCRETIONARY GRANT PROGRAM APPLICATION Direct Application to: Commissioner Tammy Baney Commissioner Dennis R. Luke r Date: L11 12- f (" 1 Project Name: Project Beginning Date: Amount of Request: Commissioner Alan Unger All Three Commissioners Lx C.erY\rA SUN CG00 -00n-. t t-LJreOvji IZ h /09 $ 3, 0QO, Ota Project End Date: z') / t. Date Funds Needed: (t 1 / I / o Applicant/Organization: L L t U �95 2.416, 6 ot-/ Tax ID #: Address: I Go Liepl 0 Se.1 £OAc> 4"Ss0 City &Zip: I j 1.ousA-na OAks ,11 Telephone:) nos) ' n _ Sw-t6 ContactName(s): (sijj k‘'/IS Fax: (8os) 493--31(91 Alternate Phone: (8o 70$-sst Email' .v ni itis CG+I I v'�i^era�, On a separate sheet, please briefly answer the following questions: 1. Describe the applicant organization, including its purpose, leadership structure, and activities. 2. Describe the proposed project or activity. 3. Provide a timeline for completing the proposed project or activity. 4. Explain how the proposed project or activity will impact the community's economic health. 5. Identify the specific communities or groups that will benefit. 6. Itemize anticipated expenditures*. Describe how grant funds will he used and include the source and amounts of matching funds or in-kind contributions, if any. If the grant will support art ongoing activity, explain how it will be funded in the future. Attach: Proof of the applicant organization's non-profit status. *Applicant may be contacted during the review process and asked to provide o complete line item budget. $ nature: __,_...-..._........__......_..._ Tummy nuney: Amount: 1 . Signature: Dentis Luke: Amount: Signature: Alan Unger: Amount Signature: rxl CENTRAL OREGON ECONOMIC FORECAST PROJECT History of Project Center for Economic Research and Forecasting Project's (CERF) primary research activities are the collection, verification, and analysis of statistical data and providing insights about the changing business and economic environment. From the assessment of this data, the CERF builds state-of-the- art economic models of the economy and provides forecasts of future economic activity in the local area. This information is presented as an annual event the last week of January. Introduction Welcome to the Central Oregon Economic Forecast. The primary researchers have years of experience providing accurate, impartial, and unbiased economic forecasting and research. Last year we expanded to Oregon and we presented hundred's of time -series and cross-sectional data on the United States, California, Oregon, and Central Oregon in a hypermedia CD. Our next annual Central Oregon Economic Forecast will be the last week of January 2010. You may ask why we include California data in a Central Oregon publication. California and its economy have dramatic impacts on Central Oregon and its economy. Recently, those impacts have been mostly negative. We try to include data and analysis on any economy that significantly impacts a subject economy. It is part of what we do. CERF does some other things differently. We assume that you can read charts and tables. Therefore, we don't waste your time reading them to you. We don't go endlessly on saying things like "this chart shows that x has declined." We don't feel a need to comment on every chart and table we present. Instead, we present a series of essays on the major trends. We might refer to a chart or a trend in presenting our analysis, but you won't find pages of chart reading in our publications. Services and Products Available Annual United States and Oregon Economic Outlook Seminars with Digital Publication The CERF staff interprets the latest economic data available to provide timely, meaningful trends to the professional community. At annual seminars, CERF offers relevant and approachable economic forecast, giving businesses and the community a clear view of what will affect them. Center for Economic Research and Forecasting The school of Business at California Lutheran University develops innovative and competitive programs at the graduate level by being selective, targeted and focused in its initiatives. CERF is a center of excellence in: • Economics modeling • Analysis • Forecasting • Academic programs Forecasting and Consulting Services • Economic Forecasting: City, County, Regional, State, and National • Custom Economics Models Built for Special Applications • Economic, Financial, Statistical Analysis • Economic Impact Studies • Custom Database Design and Implementation MEET OUR CERF TEAM: BILL WATKINS, PHD Bill Watkins is CERF's Executive Director and Associate Professor of economics at CLU. Watkins formerly served at the Executive Directors of the University of California, Santa Barbara, Economic Forecast Project. In his nine-year tenure, he expanded the project's publications and geographic scope and enhanced the organization's reputation. He also has served as an economist with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systems in Washington, DC, and a commercial banker. DAN HAMILTON, PHD Dan Hamilton, Director of Economics at CERF, began working with economic forecast models in 1997 while at Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (now know as Global Insight). He served as Director of Economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Economic Forecast project, where he built a variety of forecast models in Eviews, including models for the United States, California and Oregon. KIRK M. LESH, MBA Kirk M. Lesh is CERF's Senior Economist. In addition to his work at CERF, Lesh is completing his doctorate at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Prior to CLU, Lesh was the Real Estate Economist at the University of California Santa Barbara, Economic Forecast Project, where he prepared and presented annual real estate forecasts for several communities. Before entering the PhD program, Lesh worked as a manager of finance for several companies in Orange County. Deschutes County Economic Development Fund 1) Describe the applicant organization, including its purpose, leadership structure, and activities. The Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF) is a self funded research center located at California Lutheran University. CERF uses advanced statistical and modeling procedures to forecast economic activity. Currently, CERF forecasts the following economies: a) United States b) California c) Oregon d) Central Oregon e) Ventura County Plans are in the works to expand CERF's Oregon forecast to other areas of the state. In particular, CERF is in the process of adding forecasts for the Portland and Eugene markets. CERF also provides economic consulting services to private and public organizations. As an example, CERF is under contract with Santa Barbara County to prepare economic impact studies for projects funded by the stimulus package. CERF employs three economists: Bill Watkins, Dan Hamilton, and Kirk Lesh. Bill Watkins serves as the Executive Director. 2) Describe the proposed project or activity. CERF presents an annual Central Oregon Forecast. The forecast consists of presentations from CERF members or other highly regarded speakers. The presentations provide invaluable information regarding the economies of Oregon, California, Central Oregon, and the United States. The data and presentations are provided to all guests for future reference. 3) Provide a timeline for completing the proposed project or activity. CERF will present its annual Central Oregon Forecast during the last week of January 2010. 4) Explain how the proposed project or activity will impact the community's economic health. CERF's forecast provides relevant, timely, and accurate data. As an example, CERF's forecast of Central Oregon's unemployment rate was dismal but extremely accurate. Businesses use the data to shape their short run strategic plans. The data provides guidance as to emerging opportunities and area of weakness. Policy makers use the data to shape future economic policy. Economic policies regarding taxes and land use can be evaluated using CERF data. 5) Identify the specific communities or groups that will benefit. CERF's Central Oregon Forecast includes Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson Counties. Public and private organizations operating in these counties benefit from the forecast and accompanying data. The City of Bend and the City of Redmond used CERF data during their budgeting process for the current fiscal year. 6) Itemize anticipated expenditures. Describe how grant funds will be used and include the source and amounts of matching funds or in-kind contributions, if any. If the grant will support ongoing activity, explain how it will be funded in the future. Grant funds will be used for a variety of purposes including, but not limited to, purchasing local data, hiring speakers, or renting the venue. CERF has estimated that it will cost $30,000 to prepare and present its 2010 Central Oregon Forecast. As the Central Oregon Forecast is an ongoing activity, CERF solicits financial sponsorship from local businesses and governments. The level of sponsorship varies from year to year but generally remains very strong. Most of the sponsors for the Central Oregon Forecast have remained loyal to CERF despite difficult economic times. Due to the efforts of an advisory board that remains essentially intact, CERF has added five new sponsors to the 2010 Central Oregon Forecast. Sponsorship can be monetary or in-kind. Typically, in-kind sponsorship comes from local media. CERF recognizes them as sponsors in return for free advertising. Monetary sponsors are usually local businesses and governments that benefit from the forecast and data provided by CERF. At the sponsorship level requested in this grant, Deschutes County will receive quarterly updates to CERF's Central Oregon Forecast. :,111 t()i'I U.1 L Lit 11C i c1i 1 , October 5, 2009 Tammy Baney Dennis Luke Alan Unger Deschutes County Board of Commissioners 1300 NW Wall Street Bend, Oregon 97701 Dear County Commissioners, Enclosed, please find a request for $3,000 grant to assist the Central Oregon Economic Forecast Project. Much has happened since our initial event last January. The community and business leaders have recognized the need for academic economic information on Central Oregon. Several of the local cities have used the information in forecasting and budgeting. Many of the conditions Dr. Watkins commented on in January, proved to be very accurate. There is an annual event, which is held the same week each year and has become the premier business event of the year. By the end of November the Central Oregon Forecast Project will launch an Oregon specific web -site. It is under construction now and will be updated frequently. The 2010 Program will include: • Dr. Bill Watkins: Economist CERF, United States, Oregon and Central Oregon Forecast for 2010. • Gary Findley: "Publisher of the Findley Report" A financial institution analyst. • JH Speaks: Economist USC "Mr. Speaks was with Country Wide Home Loans. He will address the state of the US financial system. In addition to the approximately 200 pages of economic information distributed on a CD to each conference attendee; a quarterly private update will be given to sponsors of $1,500 or more. It appears that most of our sponsors are returning this year and so far we have commitments from 5 new sponsors; including a lead sponsor as $5,000. As a $3,000 sponsor you will receive 12 tickets to the event valued at $95 each, as well as an invitation to the always popular "Speaker Dinner" the evening before the event. I do know that several County staff attended last year's events with favorable comments. The information provided by the Forecast is a useful, reliable tool, helpful to both the public and private sectors. We desperately need economic development and living wage jobs in the community; and I do know there will be ideas presented along these lines. I strongly encourage you to approve our request for $3,000 and invite you to participate with Dr. Watkins and his staff in any manner that would assist the County. I do know that Dr. Watkins has been helpful in assisting several Cities and Counties in getting Federal stimulus money for various projects; and that may be a possibility for Deschutes County as well. I invite your questions and Thank you for your support. Sincerely, <GLt. (- 4 <-.0 -4_-) Lawnae Hunter Co -Chair Central Oregon Economic Forecast Project Ihunter(a�hunterproperties.info 541-389-7910 Dave Williams Gardner Williams Sharon Wojda Dave Ulrickson Co Chair Lawnae Hunter Co Chair Bill Watkins, PHD CCRF Director Eric Strobel Amy Tykeson Steve Ries Keith Rivera Mike Taus Cindy Schaffer Kirk Schueler Paul Stednitz Angela Jacobson Dave Lewis Matt McCoy John McGrath Shelle Pack Paul Heatherman Darrell De2low \ n Pamela Andrews Sonia Andrews Tom Bahrman \ 2 m Hickman Williams Engineers Com .ass Commercial City of Bend KBNZ Hunter Properties, LLC Center for Economic Forecast Research & Forecasting EDCO Bend Broad Band Combined Communications Rivera Wealth Mgt. Code Benders Amerititle Brooks Resources LibertyBank Pacific Power Bank of Oregon_ COCC Consultant Premier West Bank Paull Attorney Cascade Commercial Appraisal City of Bend Cascade Business News City of Bend Foreterra COMPANY 1201 NW Wall St. Bend, OR. 97701 600 SW Columbia St. 6100 Bend, OR 97702 710 NW Wall St. Bend, OR. 97701 354 SW Upper Terrace Dr. Bend, OR. 97702 105 NW Greeley Ave. Bend, OR. 97701 60 W. Olson Rd. Thousand Oaks, CA. 91306 109 NW Greenwood Ave, Ste. 102 Bend, OR. 97701 63090 Sherman Rd. Bend, OR. 97701 PO Box 5037 Bend ,OR. 97708 600 SW Columbia Ste. 6200 Bend, OR. 97702 4135 NW Lower Village Bend, OR. 97701 15 NW Oregon St. Bend, OR 97701 409 NW Franklin Ave. Bend, OR. 97701 805 NW Bond St. Bend, OR. 97701 63820 Clausen Dr. Bend, OR. 97701 803 SW Industrial Way Ste. 204 Bend, OR. 97702 2600 NW College Way Bend, OR. 97702 N/A 2155 NE Hwy. 20 Bend, OR 97701 250 NW Franklin Ste. 402 Bend, OR. 97701 61174 Hubble St. Bend OR. 97702 1 19486 Pine Dr. Bend, OR 97702 404 NE Norton Bend, OR 97701 710 NW Wall St. Bend, OR. 97701 PO Box 293 Bend, OR. 97708 ADDRESS ui 541-388-3236 541-382-5551 541-382-5263 541-617-7020 541-647-3115 541-389-7711 541-382-1662 541-389-9800 888-221-7070 541-749-1070 541383-7700 541-312-5127 541-633-2786 541-389-1010 541-388-5665 541-388-5505 541-617-9612 \ & 1- -1 .1-383-0568 .1-388-3104 \ \ \ \ 1 00 NO ONE § 2 k2\ƒ $ 2 73±/ davew • i wa-inc.org gwilliams • compasscommer swojda • ci.bend.or.us dulrickson@kbnztv.com lhunter@a hunterproperties. mi bwatkins@callutheran.edu eric@edcoinfo.com atykeson@bendbroadband.com steveries@combinedcommunication.com keith.rivera@ubs.com _ mtaus@aquo.com cindys(a eri-title.com kschueler@brooksresources.com pstednitz@elibertybank.com angela.jacobsonj+acifico .com david.lewis • bankoforegon.net mmccoy • cocc.edu jmflyfshr • aol.com shelle.. ack* remierwestbank.com heatherman@aoLcom Aa. Pamela@cascadebusinessnews.com sandrews@ci.bend.or.us tom@foreterra.com / ƒ -.1=1. ±/ / f rill, /¥v. k§ g r B.